Democratic
Suzie Byrd
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Oklahoma District 3 election, 2026
Suzie Byrd vs. Frank Lucas. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Frank Lucas favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+38.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+46.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Frank Lucas
Incumbent representative for OK-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OK-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Frank LucasREP · incumbent$1.1M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $570k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$45k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$17k
- Not Reported$12k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$11k
- Transportation & Logistics$7k
States
- OK$136k
- TX$17k
- VA$15k
- NY$14k
- MD$11k
Suzie ByrdDEM$18k raised
Spent $9kCash on hand $10k44% from donors under $200Self-funded $75
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$3k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$1k
States
- OK$5k
- CO$4k
- FL$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OK-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Oklahoma's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Fed’s Policy Review Will Focus on Lessons from Post-Pandemic Economy
5 min ago Fed’s Policy Review Will Focus on Lessons from Post-Pandemic Economy Rep. Frank Lucas, a Republican from Oklahoma, asked Powell about the issues that the Fed will be examining during its upcoming framework review. It will be the central bank’s secon…
Biztoc.com · February 12, 2025
Trump, Musk Roll Over GOP With Grab for Congress’ Powers
Elon Musk, hand-picked by Trump but not Senate confirmed, has been given “read-only” access to “coded data” of the government’s payments system, the Treasury Department confirmed on Tuesday. Oklahoma Rep. Frank Lucas discusses. Read more:…
Biztoc.com · February 6, 2025
GOP lawmaker squares off with USDA, tribes over farm bill land transfer
The decades-long battle over nearly 9,500 acres in Oklahoma is coming to a head in Washington, D.C. Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) secured a farm bill provision that would block transfer of the land, which currently hosts a USDA research facility and sits atop s…
Biztoc.com · August 12, 2024
House Ag Member Still Optimistic for 2024 Farm Bill
Republican Congressman Frank Lucas of Oklahoma still thinks it’s possible to get a farm bill before the end of 2024. “I don’t want to wait personally for January to do the farm bill… I want to do the farm bill as soon as possible,” the senior member of the Ho…
AgWired · July 19, 2024
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗