Democratic
Mitchell Jacob
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Cole favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+27.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+33.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tom Cole
Incumbent representative for OK-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Rocco Bonacci · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OK-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OK-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Oklahoma's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
The GOP's 3-Step Scam: Break the Country, Blame Others, Then Claim Only We Can Fix It
It’s not working any more, this scam Republicans have been running for 45 years, although Trump and many others are trying their best to revive it. Their strategy has always been simple: break things here in America, create chaos and a mess, hurt working clas…
Common Dreams · September 28, 2026
GOP chair dangles 'crowning achievement' for Trump that carries steep price for party
Some congressional Republicans think they've found the ultimate legacy project for President Donald Trump – fixing Social Security before it goes broke.The catch is that doing so may require the president to embrace a tax increase, something he has spent his …
Raw Story · September 8, 2026
2026 is THE Social Security Election
The future of Social Security, the government program that touches the lives of more Americans than any other, will be determined by the results of the November elections. Let us explain. The Social Security program faces a funding shortfall. As ABC News repo…
Common Dreams · September 4, 2026
'Train wreck is going to happen': GOP lawmaker hammers panic button over looming crisis
President Donald Trump and Republican Party leadership's complacency on a looming financial crisis has some members of the GOP caucus hitting the panic button.According to a report from Politico, Social Security, always a hot-button subject for both parties, …
Raw Story · August 27, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗