Democratic
Mitchell Jacob
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Oklahoma District 4 election, 2026
Mitchell Jacob vs. Tom Cole. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Cole favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+25.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+33.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tom Cole
Incumbent representative for OK-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Rocco Bonacci · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OK-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Tom ColeREP · incumbent$4.3M raised
Spent $3.7MCash on hand $2.4M3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$189k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$160k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$157k
- Legal & Professional Services$128k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$101k
States
- OK$671k
- VA$271k
- CA$245k
- TX$178k
- DC$96k
Mitchell JacobDEM$121k raised
Spent $102kCash on hand $19kDebts $23k28% from donors under $200Self-funded $23k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$20k
- Unemployed$15k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$6k
- Education & Academia$4k
- Technology & Communications$1k
States
- OK$63k
- WA$725
- AZ$300
- IN$250
- TX$125
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OK-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Oklahoma's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗