Democratic
Mary Gay Scanlon
Incumbent representative for PA-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Mary Gay Scanlon favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+35.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+29.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nicholas Manganaro
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Lawmakers want to ban AI companies from selling your health data
A new proposal would ban the sale of Americans' health and location information to data brokers - including information people reveal to an AI chatbot like ChatGPT or Claude. In the coming weeks, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Representative Mary Gay Sca…
The Verge · June 29, 2026
The Trump Administration Is Siding with Hate Groups
For more than a decade, right-wing Christian groups have taken issue with the Southern Poverty Law Center, the nonprofit organization founded more than 50 years ago that researches and challenges those it characterizes as hate and extremist groups. The right-…
The New Republic · June 29, 2026
Fact Check: Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon Claims SAVE Act Would Disenfranchise Half of Pennsylvania Voters
Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-PA) claimed that the SAVE Act would disenfranchise half of Pennsylvania voters by requiring them to show ID. The post Fact Check: Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon Claims SAVE Act Would Disenfranchise Half of Pennsylvania Voters appeared firs…
Breitbart News · June 26, 2026
Canceled Clancy event becomes example of censorship at US Senate hearing
At a Democrat-led Congressional hearing in late February, children’s author and former TV writer Bess Kalb used a previously unreported incident in Clancy, where she had to cancel a book reading event, to illustrate a point about the broader impacts of the Tr…
Raw Story · April 7, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗