Democratic
Madeleine Dean
Incumbent representative for PA-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Pennsylvania District 4 election, 2026
Madeleine Dean vs. Aurora Stuski. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Madeleine Dean favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+25.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+16.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Aurora Stuski
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Madeleine DeanDEM · incumbent$2.0M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $1.4M12% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$254k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$58k
- Legal & Professional Services$42k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$29k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$29k
States
- PA$621k
- DC$26k
- NY$26k
- CA$21k
- VA$17k
Aurora StuskiREP$10k raised
Spent $10kCash on hand $2k35% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- HAINES, SCOTT$1k
- PAYTON, JENNIFER$600
- CONICELLI, DOMINIC$500
- PITTS, RONNIE$500
- MARTINO, ROBERT$450
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$500
States
- PA$6k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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Dem lawmaker says Graham Platner has ‘disqualified himself’ amid mounting allegations
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New York Post · June 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗