Democratic
Madeleine Dean
Incumbent representative for PA-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Madeleine Dean favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+22.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+16.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Aurora Stuski
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Trump Strikes 'Deal With the Devil' for Russian Diesel as High Prices Hinder GOP in Midterms
Democrats in Congress and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday swiftly condemned US President Donald Trump's plan to secure diesel from Russia in hopes of combating fuel prices that have skyrocketed due to his illegal war on Iran."I have just con…
Common Dreams · October 9, 2026
Dem Rep. Dean on DSA: 'People Learn, People Moderate'
On Wednesday’s broadcast of NewsNation’s “Cuomo,” Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA) commented on the DSA by saying that, in 2018, we had the Squad, and “Many of them went on to be very valuable members of Congress, and many of them The post Dem Rep. Dean on DSA: ‘Pe…
Breitbart News · September 24, 2026
Dem lawmaker says Graham Platner has ‘disqualified himself’ amid mounting allegations
A Democratic lawmaker said Friday that her own party’s presumptive nominee for the US Senate seat from Maine, Graham Platner, has “disqualified himself” from serving in office as a cascade of allegations continues to engulf his campaign. Pennsylvania Rep. Mad…
New York Post · June 5, 2026
Pennsylvania Dem rep claims Graham Platner 'has disqualified himself' from Maine Senate race
Rep. Madeleine Dean says Democratic candidate Graham Platner has disqualified himself from Maine's Senate race amid abuse allegations and controversies.
Fox News · June 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗