Democratic
Kristi Burke
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Tennessee District 1 election, 2026
Kristi Burke vs. Diana Harshbarger on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Diana Harshbarger favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+50.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+58.42026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Diana Harshbarger
Incumbent representative for TN-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Joshua Ashburn · Independent
- Billy Cody · Independent
- Chris Campbell · Independent
- Richard Baker · Independent
- Tyler McClain · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TN-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Diana HarshbargerREP · incumbent$1.5M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $1.9MDebts $1.5M8% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$112k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$38k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$24k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$18k
- Legal & Professional Services$13k
States
- TN$131k
- TX$58k
- DC$29k
- VA$28k
- FL$23k
Kristi BurkeDEM$223k raised
Spent $195kCash on hand $27k63% from donors under $200Self-funded $10
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$58k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Technology & Communications$950
- Not Reported$850
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$820
States
- TN$57k
- FL$3k
- PA$2k
- OK$2k
- CA$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TN-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Amid Urgent Demand for Oversight, Analysis Details 105 US Lawmakers Personally Invested in the AI Industry
Despite increasingly urgent calls to regulate artificial intelligence, including from industry insiders who warn of potentially catastrophic consequences, the US Congress has continued to drag its feet on meaningful legislation.A report released Friday by Slu…
Common Dreams · September 18, 2026
'Break Up Big Medicine': Taking On Healthcare Industry Greed Could Save US Families $6,000+ a Year
As millions of working-class Americans suffer from President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans' cuts to the already dysfunctional US healthcare system, a leading anti-monopoly group this week released a report with recommendations to restore "afforda…
Common Dreams · August 28, 2026
Trump pardons husband of Tennessee Rep. Diana Harshbarger
President Donald Trump has pardoned the husband of Republican congresswoman Diana Harshbarger of Tennessee. Robert Harshbarger Jr. was a licensed pharmacist when he pleaded guilty in 2013 to substituting a cheaper drug imported from China that was not approve…
Associated Press · November 11, 2025
Trump pardons the husband of Republican supporter Rep. Diana Harshbarger of Tennessee
A White House official said Harshbarger was a victim of “excessive prosecution."
Boston Herald · November 11, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗