Democratic
Michaela Barnett
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Tennessee District 2 election, 2026
Michaela Barnett vs. Tim Burchett on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Tim Burchett favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+28.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+34.32026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tim Burchett
Incumbent representative for TN-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Bruce Fine · Independent
- Adam Heimerman · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TN-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Tim BurchettREP · incumbent$3.1M raised
Spent $2.9MCash on hand $914kDebts $24k63% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$519k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$109k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$30k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$15k
- Homemaker$12k
States
- TN$708k
- TX$56k
- FL$53k
- CA$21k
- NY$16k
Michaela BarnettDEM$718k raised
Spent $588kCash on hand $130kDebts $6k34% from donors under $200Self-funded $6k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$158k
- Retired$40k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$26k
- Not Reported$17k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$12k
States
- TN$378k
- DC$5k
- KS$5k
- VA$2k
- FL$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TN-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
“WE ARE CROOKED AS A DOG’S LEG!” Rep. Tim Burchett TORCHES Congress After GOP Midterm Disaster, Blames Diesel Price Gouging by Oil Giants and Fake Stock Trading “Ban”
Tennessee Republican Rep. The post “WE ARE CROOKED AS A DOG’S LEG!” Rep. Tim Burchett TORCHES Congress After GOP Midterm Disaster, Blames Diesel Price Gouging by Oil Giants and Fake Stock Trading “Ban” appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.
Thegatewaypundit.com · November 5, 2026
Trump Prepares to Dump Pete Hegseth Over Midterms Destruction
President Donald Trump may soon give Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth the axe after Republicans lost massively in Tuesday’s midterm elections. CBS News reports that the president has been asking advisers if Hegseth should keep his job due to the Iran war goi…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Hegseth Reportedly Eyes Senate Seat As Impeachment Threat Grows
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth might be looking for another job. He may be looking for an escape route from the Pentagon before congressional scrutiny catches up with him. According to Puck's Leigh Ann Caldwell, Hegseth is reportedly hoping Sen. Marsha Blackb…
Crooksandliars.com · October 26, 2026
Black voters in new district may get GOP rep who spent years undermining their interests
Not two weeks after the Tennessee legislature carved Memphis into three congressional districts this spring, in a move designed to eliminate Democratic representation, Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor made his electoral expectations clear in a photo posted …
Raw Story · October 26, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗