Democratic
Victoria Broderick
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Tennessee District 4 election, 2026
Victoria Broderick vs. Scott DesJarlais on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Scott DesJarlais favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+16.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+24.32026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Scott DesJarlais
Incumbent representative for TN-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jacob Anders · Independent
- Clay Faircloth · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TN-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Scott DesJarlaisREP · incumbent$667k raised
Spent $508kCash on hand $525k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$27k
- Defense & Aerospace$19k
- Homemaker$18k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$16k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$14k
States
- TN$95k
- AL$68k
- VA$28k
- CA$14k
- TX$10k
Victoria BroderickDEM$94k raised
Spent $90kCash on hand $12k54% from donors under $200Self-funded $500
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$15k
- Retired$9k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$4k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Technology & Communications$955
States
- TN$17k
- ME$7k
- MA$4k
- CA$3k
- WA$1k
Jacob AndersIND$2k raised
Spent $1kCash on hand $80581% from donors under $200Self-funded $420
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TN-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Tennessee's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗