Democratic
Mark Nair
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 13 election, 2026
Mark Nair vs. Ronny Jackson on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Ronny Jackson favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+39.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+46.72026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Ronny Jackson
Incumbent representative for TX-13. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-13. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Ronny JacksonREP · incumbent$4.8M raised
Spent $2.8MCash on hand $5.4M43% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- TEAM RONNY$1.1M
- MCLENDON, MARGARET$11k
- BROWN, BRIAN L$10k
- HILL, VERNON$10k
- LIPTAK, DAVID$8k
Industries
- Retired$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$102k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$17k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$13k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$12k
States
- TX$310k
- CA$158k
- FL$155k
- GA$58k
- AZ$57k
Mark NairDEM$138k raised
Spent $135kCash on hand $3k47% from donors under $200Self-funded $11k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$24k
- Unemployed$22k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
- Government$3k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$2k
States
- TX$79k
- FL$4k
- WA$1k
- NY$964
- NC$765
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-13; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗