Democratic
Christian Menefee
Incumbent representative for TX-18. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
Texas District 18 election, 2026
Christian Menefee vs. Ronald Whitfield on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Christian Menefee favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+62.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+55.72026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Ronald Whitfield
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-18. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Christian MenefeeDEM$3.8M raised
Spent $3.7MCash on hand $78k21% from donors under $200Self-funded $100
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- SAMUELS, BENJAMIN$25k
- KIRK, ALLAN$18k
- MCCARTHY, PETER$18k
- MCCARTHY, BAILEY$17k
- MCMILLAN, JAQUALINE$17k
Industries
- Legal & Professional Services$481k
- Unemployed$401k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$276k
- Not Reported$93k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$61k
States
- TX$2.3M
- CA$107k
- IL$44k
- NY$39k
- MA$28k
Ronald WhitfieldREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-18; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Black Candidates on the Ballot: Midterm Races To Watch
The November 2026 midterms are just as much about Black political power as they are about which party will control Congress. Black candidates across the country are gearing up to make history, proving that representation and who gets a seat at the table matte…
The Root · October 20, 2026
Democrats 'champing at the bit' to make Mike Johnson's darkest fears a reality: report
House Speaker Mike Johnson warned a room of Christian conservatives earlier this year about what Democrats would do with a House majority, and a new report reveals Democrats are already preparing to do exactly that.Johnson hysterically warned a room full of C…
Raw Story · October 16, 2026
Ridicule as Ken Paxton's 'silly' campaign ad backfires: ‘Voters aren't stupid'
Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton faced backlash Friday after releasing a new campaign ad acknowledging that prices “keep climbing — while blaming Democrats for making life more expensive in a ruby red state the GOP has controlled for over 30 years.T…
Raw Story · October 2, 2026
'The Gerrymander That Won't Die': Missouri GOP's Map Headed to Supreme Court a Third Time
Despite its right-wing supermajority, the US Supreme Court has twice struck down Missouri Republicans' rigged congressional districts for the November midterm elections, but after an appellate panel's Monday decision, the map fight is headed back to the justi…
Common Dreams · September 21, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗