Democratic
Casey Shepard
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 17 election, 2026
Casey Shepard vs. Pete Sessions on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Pete Sessions favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+21.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Pete Sessions
Incumbent representative for TX-17. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-17. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Pete SessionsREP · incumbent$1.3M raised
Spent $731kCash on hand $1.0M10% from donors under $200Self-funded $10
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$67k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$49k
- Retired$31k
- Not Reported$24k
- Legal & Professional Services$24k
States
- TX$331k
- NY$54k
- NJ$33k
- CA$29k
- VA$25k
Casey ShepardDEM$94k raised
Spent $11kCash on hand $78kDebts $5k4% from donors under $200Self-funded $5k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$5k
- Retired$1k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$1k
States
- TX$84k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-17; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 17th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Former GOP Rep. David Rivera gets 10 years for secret Venezuela lobbying
MIAMI (AP) — A former Miami congressman and longtime friend of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was sentenced Friday to 10 years in prison in connection with a secret $50 million lobbying campaign on Venezuela’s behalf during the first Trump administration…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 2, 2026
Ex-Rules chair to oppose rule
How much trouble is the GOP leadership floor plan in? Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, a former Rules Committee chair who is not in the habit of defying party leaders, said he plans to vote against the procedural measure advanced by the panel last night. He cited…
Biztoc.com · September 1, 2026
Disillusioned Republican says he can't bring himself to vote for some of his own party
LUBBOCK — Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said Thursday that Republicans are going to lose some statewide elections this year because of data centers, which has become a heated issue for Texas across the state. In an interview with The Texas Tribune…
Raw Story · August 6, 2026
Fox Host Goes Ballistic Over Bill To Help American Farmers
Rep. Pete Sessions appeared on Fox's The Big Weekend Show to discuss a bill aimed at helping American farmers by expanding and expediting the agricultural guestworker program. This is not a new subject, and even Pedolph Shitler said that they would have to co…
Crooksandliars.com · August 3, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗