VotePredictor
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Texas District 17 election, 2026

Casey Shepard vs. Pete Sessions on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast
Pete Sessions favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+29.5
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.9
2026 national environment
D+6.3
Model uncertainty
±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Casey Shepard

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-17. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-17; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Past results

Every election in Texas's 17th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

Candidate news

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: TX-16 · TX-18