Democratic
Joaquin Castro
Incumbent representative for TX-20. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 20 election, 2026
Joaquin Castro vs. Edgardo Rafael Baez on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Joaquin Castro favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+36.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+28.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Edgardo Rafael Baez
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-20. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Joaquin CastroDEM · incumbent$592k raised
Spent $602kCash on hand $129k8% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$74k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$53k
- Legal & Professional Services$42k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$15k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$12k
States
- TX$289k
- CA$19k
- VA$12k
- DC$11k
- NY$10k
Edgardo Rafael BaezREP$69k raised
Spent $61kCash on hand $9kDebts $40k7% from donors under $200Self-funded $42k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$3k
States
- TX$15k
- FL$1k
- VA$260
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-20; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
‘Rats Run Away’: Facing Criminal Probe, Flávio Bolsonaro Flees Brazil to US After Loss to Lula
Just one day after vowing he would remain in Brazil to disprove allegations of money laundering, corruption, and other crimes, far-right Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro followed in his disgraced father's footsteps by fleeing to the United States after losing …
Common Dreams · October 27, 2026
Rep. Castro: Trump's Mass Deportation Campaign Has 'Torn the Country Apart'
On Wednesday’s broadcast of MS NOW’s “On the Line,” Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) said President Donald Trump’s mass deportation campaign “has really torn the country apart.” Castro said, “There’s a reason that Representative James Talarico is gaining in the pol…
Breitbart News · October 7, 2026
Joaquin Castro: 'Lawless' ICE Basically Torturing People
On Tuesday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Lead,” Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) said Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is basically torturing people, like the Venezuelan man who was shot by an agent Sunday in Austin, Texas. Anchor Jake Tapper said, “A The post…
Breitbart News · September 23, 2026
Austin Man Shot by ICE Facing Paralysis After Being Refused Medical Care
Democrats in Congress on Monday evening were demanding a full, independent investigation into US Immigration and Customs Enforcement's shooting on Sunday of Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, as it was reported that he had been held in an ICE detention center with a…
Common Dreams · September 22, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗