VotePredictor
← all House races

Texas District 2 election, 2026

Shaun Finnie vs. Steve Toth on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Steve Toth favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+13.1
98%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+23.1
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging R+9.0
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+15.7.

Democratic

Shaun Finnie

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Steve Toth

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Impact Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-10-04R+9.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Shaun FinnieDEM$3.2M raised
Spent $2.9MCash on hand $262kDebts $2.0M3% from donors under $200Self-funded $2.0M
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. FINNIE, SHAUN$2.0M
  2. DESMOND, THOMAS$12k
  3. BECCI, MICHAEL$11k
  4. HILTZ, WILLIAM$9k
  5. SHAUN FINNIE VICTORY FUND$9k

Industries

  1. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$200k
  2. Not Reported$198k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$34k
  4. Energy, Utilities & Mining$27k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$11k

States

  1. TX$344k
  2. NY$208k
  3. CO$56k
  4. CA$47k
  5. CT$29k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Steve TothREP$1.0M raised
Spent $923kCash on hand $112k6% from donors under $200Self-funded $13k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. STEVE TOTH VICTORY COMMITTEE$35k
  2. LEWIS, GUY$21k
  3. GORE, REX$20k
  4. NAVOLIO, MICHAEL E.$15k
  5. SOMMER, STEVEN C.$15k

Industries

  1. Retired$232k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$57k
  3. Not Reported$31k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$16k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$16k

States

  1. TX$717k
  2. FL$10k
  3. OH$8k
  4. TN$4k
  5. PA$4k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Texas's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2018Dan Crenshaw(R)R+7.3
2004Ted Poe(R)R+12.6

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: TX-19 · TX-20