Democratic
Shaun Finnie
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 2 election, 2026
Shaun Finnie vs. Steve Toth on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Steve Toth favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+17.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+23.12026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Steve Toth
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗