Democratic
Henry Cuellar
Incumbent representative for TX-28. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 28 election, 2026
Henry Cuellar vs. Tano Tijerina on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Henry Cuellar favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+7.3
91%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+10.52026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+14.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+0.6.
Republican
Tano Tijerina
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Marlón Durán · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center07-302026-07-30D+11.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Henry CuellarDEM · incumbent$3.0M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $657kDebts $301k2% from donors under $200Self-funded $318k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$321k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$207k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$91k
- Legal & Professional Services$82k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$48k
States
- TX$749k
- CA$226k
- NY$98k
- FL$62k
- DC$59k
Tano TijerinaREP$1.9M raised
Spent $1.7MCash on hand $113k10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$101k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$43k
- Legal & Professional Services$21k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$11k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$8k
States
- TX$384k
- FL$14k
- AR$8k
- CA$6k
- VA$6k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-28; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Trump-backed Republican redistricting sought a midterm edge. It failed.
WASHINGTON (AP) — At the urging of President Donald Trump, Republicans in eight states redrew the boundaries of dozens of congressional districts over the past year while angling for an edge that could help them hold onto a slim House majority in a tough midt…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Trump-backed Republican redistricting sought a midterm edge. It failed.
WASHINGTON (AP) — At the urging of President Donald Trump, Republicans in eight states redrew the boundaries of dozens of congressional districts over the past year while angling for an edge that could help them hold onto a slim House majority in a tough midt…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Henry Cuellar, Texas Democrat pardoned by Trump, wins 12th House term
Cuellar, 71, and his wife Imelda had been indicted in May 2024 on bribery and money laundering charges, but were pardoned by Trump in December 2025.
New York Post · November 4, 2026
Trump Lost It at Alina Habba After Learning About Her $50 Million Deal
President Donald Trump reportedly flew into a rage once he learned that Alina Habba Mildon got a $50 million contract to secure a pardon for a billionaire family. The New York Times reports that Mildon, Trump’s former personal lawyer who has held multiple job…
The New Republic · October 30, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗