Democratic
Henry Cuellar
Incumbent representative for TX-28. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 28 election, 2026
Henry Cuellar vs. Tano Tijerina on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Henry Cuellar favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+3.0
69%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.52026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging D+11.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+2.2.
Republican
Tano Tijerina
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Marlón Durán · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-07-30D+11.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-28; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Trump calls Democrat he pardoned a 'loser' for not switching parties
President Donald Trump slammed Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas for not becoming a Republican after receiving a presidential pardon.
Fox News · October 8, 2026
Trump Straight Up Admits He Pardons People to Get Something in Return
When Donald Trump gives, he expects something in return.The revelation came amid an attack Wednesday night against Texas Representative Henry Cuellar, who Trump apparently believed should have become a Republican after he received a presidential pardon last y…
The New Republic · October 8, 2026
Transcript: Trump Polls Turn Brutal as Allies Panic: “Worse than 2006”
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 9 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Today we’re…
The New Republic · October 8, 2026
Trump fact-checked to his face by guest during rally: 'I don't think so, Mr. President'
Former MLB superstar Roger Clemens fact-checked President Donald Trump during his Texas rally Wednesday night. Trump traveled to San Antonio, Texas, to stump for Republicans like Tano Tijerina in his race against Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), whom Trump attacked…
Raw Story · October 8, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗