Democratic
Henry Cuellar
Incumbent representative for TX-28. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 28 election, 2026
Henry Cuellar vs. Tano Tijerina on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Henry Cuellar favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+6.2
82%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.52026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Tano Tijerina
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Marlón Durán · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-07-30D+11.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-28; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
University event with Hasan Piker in Texas draws backlash from both sides of the aisle
Hasan Piker's planned UT Austin event drew bipartisan backlash from Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott and Henry Cuellar over his past remarks on 9/11 and Hamas.
Fox News · September 18, 2026
Texas 28 Race Pits Longtime Democrat Against Former Democrat-Turned-Republican
Republican Tano Tijerina is challenging longtime Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in a closely watched South Texas congressional race.
Daily Signal · September 17, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump
House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel
On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…
The New Republic · September 3, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗