Democratic
Vicente Gonzalez
Incumbent representative for TX-34. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 34 election, 2026
Vicente Gonzalez vs. Eric Flores on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Eric Flores favored
Toss-up · predicted margin EVEN
50%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.22026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging D+3.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+1.9.
Republican
Eric Flores
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Eddie Espinoza · Green
- Chris Royal · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-07-30D+3.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-34; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Dem who ripped rival’s donor-fueled 'good life' dropped campaign cash on Disney, spouse travel
Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-Texas, accused a GOP rival of ‘living the good life’ on donor money, but his campaign reported nearly $20K in spending around his own trips to Disney World, the UAE and Europe
Fox News · October 8, 2026
Transcript: Trump Polls Turn Brutal as Allies Panic: “Worse than 2006”
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 9 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Today we’re…
The New Republic · October 8, 2026
Transcript: Trump Midterm Tirade Accidentally Reveals Key GOP Weakness
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 2 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.This week, …
The New Republic · October 2, 2026
Can GOP’s Eric Flores Unseat Democrat Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’ 34th District?
Texas’ 34th Congressional District is gearing up to be a highly contested race in the upcoming November election. The district covers parts of South Texas and the Gulf Coast, including Brownsville and Harlingen. The current representative for the district i…
Daily Signal · September 22, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗