Democratic
Vicente Gonzalez
Incumbent representative for TX-34. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 34 election, 2026
Vicente Gonzalez vs. Eric Flores on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Vicente Gonzalez favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.1
66%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+10.22026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+4.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+0.4.
Republican
Eric Flores
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Eddie Espinoza · Green
- Chris Royal · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government10-192026-10-19D+7.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Vicente GonzalezDEM · incumbent$5.2M raised
Spent $4.1MCash on hand $1.4MDebts $250k21% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$987k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$290k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$259k
- Legal & Professional Services$87k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$55k
States
- TX$712k
- NY$420k
- CA$415k
- MA$201k
- FL$79k
Eric FloresREP$4.0M raised
Spent $3.8MCash on hand $246kDebts $669k27% from donors under $200Self-funded $577k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- FLORES, ERIC$577k
- GROW THE MAJORITY$263k
- ERIC FLORES VICTORY FUND$191k
- EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$129k
- SECURE THE BORDER NOW$120k
Industries
- Retired$635k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$96k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$49k
- Not Reported$23k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$19k
States
- TX$739k
- FL$77k
- CA$62k
- GA$33k
- VA$32k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-34; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Trump-backed Republican redistricting sought a midterm edge. It failed.
WASHINGTON (AP) — At the urging of President Donald Trump, Republicans in eight states redrew the boundaries of dozens of congressional districts over the past year while angling for an edge that could help them hold onto a slim House majority in a tough midt…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Trump-backed Republican redistricting sought a midterm edge. It failed.
WASHINGTON (AP) — At the urging of President Donald Trump, Republicans in eight states redrew the boundaries of dozens of congressional districts over the past year while angling for an edge that could help them hold onto a slim House majority in a tough midt…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Exclusive — TX GOP Candidate Eric Flores: I Saw the Border Crisis Firsthand in Texas as a Soldier
Eric Flores, a Republican vying to unseat incumbent Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) in Texas's 34th Congressional District, said he witnessed the realities of the border crisis firsthand in Texas during his time as a solider on Operation Guardian Suppor…
Breitbart News · October 22, 2026
Exclusive — TX GOP Candidate Eric Flores: Democrat Vicente Gonzalez Pushing the 'Woke Left Trans Agenda'
Incumbent Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) is pushing the "woke left trans agenda," Republican Eric Flores, challenging Gonzalez in the tossup district Texas District 34, said during an appearance on Breitbart News Daily. The post Exclusive — TX GOP Cand…
Breitbart News · October 22, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗