Democratic
Johnny Garcia
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 35 election, 2026
Johnny Garcia vs. Carlos De La Cruz on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Carlos De La Cruz favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+12.8
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.62026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Carlos De La Cruz
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Normington, Petts & Associates2026-08-31R+1.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-35; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗