Texas District 35 election, 2026

Johnny Garcia vs. Carlos De La Cruz on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Carlos De La Cruz favored

Lean R · predicted margin R+4.6

77%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+10.6

2026 national environment

D+6.6

District polls

1, averaging R+1.0

Forecast spread

±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+6.9.

Democratic

Johnny Garcia

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Carlos De La Cruz

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

Normington, Petts & Associates2026-08-31R+1.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-35; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: TX-34 · TX-36