Democratic
Greg Casar
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 37 election, 2026
Greg Casar vs. Lauren Peña on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Greg Casar favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+63.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+57.72026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Lauren Peña
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-37. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-37; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗