VotePredictor
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Texas District 38 election, 2026

Melissa McDonough vs. Jon Bonck on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Jon Bonck favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+13.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+21.3
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Melissa McDonough

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Jon Bonck

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Alex McMenemy · Green

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-38. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Jon BonckREP$2.2M raised
Spent $2.0MCash on hand $248kDebts $392k7% from donors under $200Self-funded $451k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. BONCK, JON$351k
  2. JON BONCK VICTORY FUND$200k
  3. BONCK, JONATHAN$100k
  4. GILES, TERRY$17k
  5. MITZNER, RIVA IRA$14k

Industries

  1. Retired$160k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$90k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$75k
  4. Energy, Utilities & Mining$50k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$43k

States

  1. TX$945k
  2. FL$24k
  3. CA$13k
  4. LA$13k
  5. DC$12k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Melissa McDonoughDEM$125k raised
Spent $103kCash on hand $44kDebts $133k40% from donors under $200Self-funded $48k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MCDONOUGH, MELISSA A.$28k
  2. GRIFFIN, ALYSON$4k
  3. JEANNINE, PERROT$4k
  4. LUENING, JUDANN$4k
  5. PERROT, JEANNINE$3k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$20k
  2. Retired$6k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$5k
  4. Energy, Utilities & Mining$750
  5. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$652

States

  1. TX$49k
  2. DC$1k
  3. CA$238
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Alex McMenemyGRE$10k raised
Spent $9kCash on hand $7465% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MCMENEMY, ALEX RICHARD$4k
  2. SCHMIDT, ALYSSA$4k
  3. DURAN, MARLON$705
  4. SEETON, SUSAN$527
  5. BAUMAN, MATTHEW$316

Industries

  1. Self-Employed & Freelance$5k

States

  1. TX$5k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-38; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: TX-37 · TX-4