Democratic
Melissa McDonough
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 38 election, 2026
Melissa McDonough vs. Jon Bonck on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Jon Bonck favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.3
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.32026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jon Bonck
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Alex McMenemy · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-38. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-38; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗