Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies
Graded against the actual result across 8 races (from 33 polls, through 2024).
Every race (8)
Each race Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 US President | R+0.5 | R+1.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2020 US President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2016 US President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2012 US President | D+1.0 | D+3.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2008 US President | D+8.0 | D+7.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2004 US President | R+1.0 | R+2.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2003 CA Governor | R+13.0 | R+17.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2000 US President | R+3.0 | D+0.5 | 3.5 | ✗ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤1 wk | 8 | 2.55 | -1.69 | 75% |
| 1–3 wk | 7 | 3.77 | -1.29 | 57% |
| 3–6 wk | 10 | 5.32 | -0.38 | 80% |
| 6–9 wk | 8 | 3.43 | -2.71 | 100% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 7 | 3.6 | R+2.5 |
| 2004 | 3 | 1.5 | D+1.1 |
| 2008 | 6 | 3.8 | R+2.4 |
| 2012 | 4 | 2.3 | R+1.2 |
| 2016 | 5 | 5.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2020 | 5 | 6.4 | D+6.4 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.