Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
D+0.5
75 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Religion Research Institute | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | RAND (American Life Panel) | D+3.3 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gallup | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Angus Reid Global | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Pew Research Center | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | High Point University Survey Research Center | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Connecticut | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | MRG Research | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+5.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | D+2.2 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 17 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 18 | CBS News | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 19 | Selzer & Co. | D+6.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 20 | TIPP Insights | D+1.6 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 21 | CVOTER | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 22 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 23 | Purple Strategies | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 24 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 25 | FTI Consulting | D+7.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 26 | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 27 | Gravis Marketing | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 28 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 29 | American Research Group | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 30 | Big Village | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 31 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 32 | Zogby Analytics | R+0.3 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 33 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 34 | North Star Opinion Research | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 35 | The Winston Group | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 36 | Clarus Research Group | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 37 | GfK Group | R+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Polls (176)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-11-04 | 1041 | R+0.3 | 4 |
| CVOTER | 2012-11-04 | 3000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-04 | 740 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2012-11-04 | 712 | D+1.6 | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2012-11-04 | 1000 | EVEN | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-04 | 3000 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-11-03 | 872 | EVEN | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 1300 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 1200 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2012-11-03 | 3050 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-11-03 | 2345 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2012-11-03 | 2551 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-03 | 4725 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| GQR | 2012-11-03 | 1080 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2012-11-03 | 1417 | EVEN | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2012-11-03 | 1200 | EVEN | 4 |
| Big Village | 2012-11-03 | 693 | EVEN | 4 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-02 | 1019 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-11-02 | 3500 | D+3.3 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 36472 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Pew Research Center | 2012-11-02 | 2709 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-11-02 | 1475 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-01 | 3000 | EVEN | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-11-01 | 709 | D+1.2 | 3 |
| Purple Strategies | 2012-10-31 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2012-10-31 | 1000 | EVEN | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-31 | 1200 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-30 | 800 | D+0.2 | 4 |
| CVOTER | 2012-10-30 | 1074 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-10-30 | 1293 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-29 | 1015 | R+1.9 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-29 | 4085 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-10-29 | 1128 | EVEN | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-29 | 1500 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-28 | 688 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-27 | 1400 | EVEN | 4 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2012-10-27 | 713 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2012-10-27 | 563 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-27 | 1200 | EVEN | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-27 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Pew Research Center | 2012-10-26 | 1495 | EVEN | 4 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2012-10-26 | 805 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-10-26 | 3500 | D+5.1 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-26 | 1500 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-10-26 | 1278 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Gallup | 2012-10-25 | 2700 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| TIPP Insights | 2012-10-24 | 942 | D+1.3 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-24 | 1610 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-24 | 1237 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2012-10-24 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2012-10-24 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-24 | 1200 | EVEN | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-23 | 1500 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| CVOTER | 2012-10-22 | 1179 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-10-22 | 1394 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-21 | 803 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| GfK Group | 2012-10-21 | 839 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-21 | 1200 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2012-10-20 | 1402 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2012-10-20 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-20 | 1200 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-20 | 1500 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-19 | 1200 | EVEN | 4 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-10-19 | 3500 | D+1.9 | 2 |
| CBS News | 2012-10-19 | 790 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-19 | 816 | EVEN | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-19 | 800 | D+2.4 | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2012-10-18 | 885 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Gallup | 2012-10-18 | 2700 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-18 | 1368 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-18 | 1200 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-18 | 805 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-17 | 1500 | EVEN | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2012-10-16 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| CVOTER | 2012-10-15 | 1254 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-14 | 1500 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-14 | 826 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-14 | 384 | R+16.0 | 20 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-13 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| University of Connecticut | 2012-10-13 | 1023 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-13 | 2106 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-13 | 1864 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-13 | 624 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-10-12 | 923 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-10-12 | 3500 | D+5.2 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-12 | 608 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2012-10-12 | 931 | D+1.6 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2012-10-11 | 2700 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-11 | 1500 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-10 | 906 | EVEN | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2012-10-09 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2012-10-09 | 1360 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-08 | 1500 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-08 | 1027 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-10-08 | 1109 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| The Winston Group | 2012-10-08 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-07 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| CVOTER | 2012-10-07 | 1110 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-07 | 763 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-06 | 1300 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2012-10-06 | 757 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| Pew Research Center | 2012-10-06 | 1112 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-06 | 800 | D+0.5 | 3 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-10-05 | 3500 | D+3.8 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-05 | 1500 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2012-10-04 | 3050 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2012-10-04 | 2700 | EVEN | 4 |
| Clarus Research Group | 2012-10-04 | 590 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-03 | 1434 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2012-10-03 | 1728 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2012-10-03 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-02 | 1500 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Clarus Research Group | 2012-10-02 | 590 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-01 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-30 | 785 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2012-09-29 | 783 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2012-09-29 | 789 | EVEN | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-29 | 1100 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-29 | 1200 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-29 | 1500 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-09-28 | 813 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-09-28 | 3500 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| GQR | 2012-09-28 | 800 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-28 | 832 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-09-28 | 800 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-27 | 1912 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Gallup | 2012-09-27 | 3050 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-26 | 1500 | EVEN | 4 |
| CVOTER | 2012-09-26 | 855 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2012-09-26 | 855 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| MRG Research | 2012-09-26 | 981 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2012-09-26 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-09-25 | 1092 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2012-09-23 | 789 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-23 | 896 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-23 | 1500 | EVEN | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-22 | 1200 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-09-21 | 3500 | D+6.2 | 2 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 2012-09-21 | 1862 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-09-21 | 860 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2012-09-20 | 3050 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-20 | 1500 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-09-19 | 865 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| CVOTER | 2012-09-19 | 761 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2012-09-19 | 1616 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-19 | 761 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2012-09-18 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-17 | 1500 | EVEN | 4 |
| FTI Consulting | 2012-09-17 | 1055 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-16 | 943 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-15 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| University of Connecticut | 2012-09-15 | 1186 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2012-09-15 | 787 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| GfK Group | 2012-09-15 | 807 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2012-09-15 | 1344 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-09-14 | 3500 | D+3.4 | 1 |
| Pew Research Center | 2012-09-14 | 2192 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-14 | 736 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-14 | 1500 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| The Winston Group | 2012-09-13 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2012-09-13 | 3050 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-09-11 | 1014 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| CVOTER | 2012-09-11 | 1036 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2012-09-11 | 990 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-11 | 1500 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| GQR | 2012-09-10 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2012-09-10 | 1162 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-09-10 | 1056 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2012-09-09 | 873 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-09-09 | 384 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Big Village | 2012-09-08 | 709 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-08 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-09-08 | 710 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-08 | 1500 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2012-09-07 | 3500 | D+3.7 | 0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2012-09-06 | 808 | D+2.0 | 2 |