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Toss-up · 2012 President
US President
In the 2012 US President race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
D+0.5
75 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Religion Research Institute | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | RAND (American Life Panel) | D+3.3 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gallup | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Angus Reid Global | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Pew Research Center | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | High Point University Survey Research Center | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Connecticut | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | MRG Research | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+5.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 17 | CBS News | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 18 | Selzer & Co. | D+6.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 19 | TIPP Insights | D+1.6 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 20 | CVOTER | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 21 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 22 | Purple Strategies | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 23 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 24 | FTI Consulting | D+7.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 25 | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 26 | Gravis Marketing | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 27 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 28 | American Research Group | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 29 | Big Village | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 30 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 31 | Zogby Analytics | R+0.3 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 32 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 33 | North Star Opinion Research | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 34 | The Winston Group | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 35 | Clarus Research Group | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 36 | GfK Group | R+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
176 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2012-11-044
CVOTER2012-11-043
YouGov2012-11-042
TIPP Insights2012-11-042
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2012-11-044
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 US President race?
Barack Obama (D) won, by about 3.9 points (D+3.9).
When was the 2012 US President election held?
It was held in November 2012.