Toss-up · 2012 President

US President

In the 2012 US President race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 4 points.

Actual result

D+3.9

Final polls said

D+0.5

75 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	GQR	D+4.0	0.1	✓
2	McLaughlin & Associates	D+4.0	0.1	✓
3	Quinnipiac University	D+4.0	0.1	✓
4	Public Religion Research Institute	D+4.0	0.1	✓
5	RAND (American Life Panel)	D+3.3	0.6	✓
6	Gallup	D+3.0	0.9	✓
7	ABC News/The Washington Post	D+3.0	0.9	✓
8	Angus Reid Global	D+3.0	0.9	✓
9	Pew Research Center	D+3.0	0.9	✓
10	High Point University Survey Research Center	D+3.0	0.9	✓
11	University of Connecticut	D+3.0	0.9	✓
12	MRG Research	D+3.0	0.9	✓
13	Princeton Survey Research Associates International	D+5.0	1.1	✓
14	YouGov	D+2.0	1.9	✓
15	Public Policy Polling	D+2.0	1.9	✓
16	Ipsos	D+2.0	1.9	✓
17	CBS News	D+2.0	1.9	✓
18	Selzer & Co.	D+6.0	2.1	✓
19	TIPP Insights	D+1.6	2.3	✓
20	CVOTER	D+1.0	2.9	✓
21	Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies	D+1.0	2.9	✓
22	Purple Strategies	D+1.0	2.9	✓
23	CBS News/The New York Times	D+1.0	2.9	✓
24	FTI Consulting	D+7.0	3.1	✓
25	Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group	EVEN	3.9	✗
26	Gravis Marketing	EVEN	3.9	✗
27	Monmouth University Polling Institute	EVEN	3.9	✗
28	American Research Group	EVEN	3.9	✗
29	Big Village	EVEN	3.9	✗
30	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	EVEN	3.9	✗
31	Zogby Analytics	R+0.3	4.2	✗
32	Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	R+1.0	4.9	✗
33	North Star Opinion Research	R+1.0	4.9	✗
34	The Winston Group	R+1.0	4.9	✗
35	Clarus Research Group	R+1.0	4.9	✗
36	GfK Group	R+2.0	5.9	✗