Actual result
D+0.5
Final polls said
R+2.5
82 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harris Insights & Analytics | EVEN | 0.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | Opinion Dynamics | EVEN | 0.5 | ✗ |
| 3 | GQR | EVEN | 0.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 0.5 | ✗ |
| 5 | CBS News | D+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | D+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | TIPP Insights | R+1.9 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Gallup | R+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 11 | Pew Research Center | R+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 12 | SSRS | R+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | R+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | American Viewpoint | R+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 15 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 16 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | R+3.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 17 | Polling Company/Global Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 18 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+3.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 19 | Wirthlin Worldwide | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 20 | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 21 | Marist College | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 22 | University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science | D+6.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 23 | Yankelovich Partners Inc. | R+6.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 24 | Los Angeles Times | R+6.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 25 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+9.0 | 9.5 | ✗ |
Polls (160)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallup | 2000-11-05 | 2350 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| CBS News | 2000-11-05 | 1091 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-11-05 | 1200 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-11-05 | 3750 | R+9.0 | 9 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2000-11-05 | 1091 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-11-05 | 1200 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2000-11-05 | 1292 | R+1.9 | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-11-05 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-11-04 | 1026 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| CBS News | 2000-11-04 | 1273 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Pew Research Center | 2000-11-04 | 1301 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Polling Company/Global Strategy Group | 2000-11-04 | 1253 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-11-04 | 1348 | EVEN | 0 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-11-04 | 1801 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2000-11-03 | 1158 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| SSRS | 2000-11-03 | 1103 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Pew Research Center | 2000-11-03 | 1307 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2000-11-03 | 2733 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-11-02 | 1200 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Polling Company/Global Strategy Group | 2000-11-02 | 1253 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| CBS News | 2000-11-02 | 825 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2000-11-02 | 825 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-11-02 | 751 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2000-11-02 | 883 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-11-01 | 1280 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-11-01 | 134000 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-11-01 | 3750 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-11-01 | 808 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Polling Company/Global Strategy Group | 2000-11-01 | 1000 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2000-11-01 | 623 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2000-11-01 | 1000 | EVEN | 0 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-11-01 | 1000 | R+9.0 | 9 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-11-01 | 1280 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-31 | 2123 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| TIPP Insights | 2000-10-30 | 1016 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| CBS News | 2000-10-30 | 965 | EVEN | 0 |
| GQR | 2000-10-30 | 1016 | EVEN | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-30 | 1200 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-30 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-29 | 1067 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-29 | 3750 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-29 | 1020 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-28 | 2207 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-27 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2000-10-27 | 1103 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Pew Research Center | 2000-10-27 | 1062 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-26 | 1009 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-10-26 | 1113 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-10-26 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-10-26 | 818 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-26 | 1009 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-25 | 851 | R+13.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-25 | 3750 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Yankelovich Partners Inc. | 2000-10-25 | 1076 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| GQR | 2000-10-24 | 998 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-23 | 1200 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-10-23 | 813 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-23 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-22 | 752 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Wirthlin Worldwide | 2000-10-22 | 751 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-22 | 3750 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2000-10-21 | 829 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-20 | 1200 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-10-20 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| American Viewpoint | 2000-10-20 | 800 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Pew Research Center | 2000-10-20 | 663 | EVEN | 0 |
| SSRS | 2000-10-20 | 653 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2000-10-20 | 825 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-20 | 1071 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-10-19 | 800 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2000-10-19 | 1009 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-19 | 718 | R+11.0 | 11 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-10-18 | 709 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-18 | 3750 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2000-10-18 | 900 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| GQR | 2000-10-18 | 832 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-10-18 | 709 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-17 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-16 | 709 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-16 | 1224 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-15 | 1770 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-15 | 1770 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-14 | 1103 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| TIPP Insights | 2000-10-14 | 803 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-10-14 | 709 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-10-14 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-14 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2000-10-13 | 679 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-13 | 727 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Yankelovich Partners Inc. | 2000-10-12 | 603 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-10-12 | 803 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| CBS News | 2000-10-11 | 669 | EVEN | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-11 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-10-11 | 501 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-10-10 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-10 | 690 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Polling Company/Global Strategy Group | 2000-10-09 | 1004 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2000-10-09 | 1027 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-10-08 | 826 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| CBS News | 2000-10-08 | 999 | EVEN | 0 |
| Wirthlin Worldwide | 2000-10-08 | 730 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-08 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2000-10-07 | 809 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-07 | 790 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| Pew Research Center | 2000-10-06 | 709 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2000-10-06 | 647 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-10-05 | 804 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-05 | 1200 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-10-04 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2000-10-04 | 900 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Yankelovich Partners Inc. | 2000-10-04 | 636 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-04 | 683 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| CBS News | 2000-10-03 | 812 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-10-03 | 500 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-02 | 1200 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Gallup | 2000-10-01 | 684 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-09-30 | 709 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-09-30 | 995 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2000-09-29 | 963 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| SSRS | 2000-09-29 | 667 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2000-09-29 | 588 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| GQR | 2000-09-29 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-09-29 | 1200 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2000-09-28 | 664 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-09-28 | 1000 | EVEN | 0 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-09-28 | 772 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science | 2000-09-27 | 700 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2000-09-25 | 686 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2000-09-24 | 694 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Wirthlin Worldwide | 2000-09-24 | 713 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2000-09-22 | 680 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-09-22 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2000-09-22 | 693 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-09-21 | 766 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-09-21 | 1003 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2000-09-20 | 900 | EVEN | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-09-19 | 1202 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2000-09-19 | 657 | D+10.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-09-18 | 800 | EVEN | 0 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-09-17 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2000-09-16 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-09-16 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2000-09-16 | 741 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Pew Research Center | 2000-09-15 | 709 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| SSRS | 2000-09-15 | 656 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2000-09-15 | 1023 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-09-14 | 580 | D+14.0 | 14 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-09-13 | 45000 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2000-09-13 | 690 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-09-12 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2000-09-12 | 1477 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-09-12 | 781 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-09-11 | 1005 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2000-09-10 | 843 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2000-09-10 | 732 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-09-09 | 2017 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-09-09 | 773 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2000-09-09 | 1305 | EVEN | 0 |
| SSRS | 2000-09-08 | 651 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2000-09-07 | 595 | D+8.0 | 8 |