Toss-up · 2004 President

US President

In the 2004 US President race, George W. Bush (R) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

R+2.4

Final polls said

R+1.3

66 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	CBS News/The New York Times	R+2.0	0.4	✓
2	Gallup	R+2.0	0.4	✓
3	Pew Research Center	R+3.0	0.6	✓
4	McLaughlin & Associates	R+3.0	0.6	✓
5	Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	R+1.7	0.7	✓
6	TIPP Insights	R+3.3	0.9	✓
7	Harris Insights & Analytics	R+1.0	1.4	✓
8	CBS News	R+1.0	1.4	✓
9	Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies	R+1.0	1.4	✓
10	ABC News/The Washington Post	R+1.0	1.4	✓
11	SSRS	R+1.0	1.4	✓
12	Los Angeles Times	R+1.0	1.4	✓
13	Ohio University	R+1.0	1.4	✓
14	PSB Research	R+4.0	1.6	✓
15	Zogby Analytics	R+0.3	2.1	✓
16	American Research Group	EVEN	2.4	✗
17	Abt Associates	R+5.0	2.6	✓
18	Marist College	D+1.0	3.4	✗
19	GQR	D+1.0	3.4	✗
20	The Winston Group	D+1.0	3.4	✗
21	Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group	R+6.0	3.6	✓
22	Princeton Survey Research Associates International	R+6.0	3.6	✓
23	Opinion Dynamics	D+2.0	4.4	✗
24	YouGov	D+3.0	5.4	✗
25	Ipsos	D+3.0	5.4	✗