Actual result
R+2.4
Final polls said
R+1.3
66 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CBS News/The New York Times | R+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | R+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pew Research Center | R+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | TIPP Insights | R+3.3 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+1.3 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | CBS News | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | SSRS | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Los Angeles Times | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Ohio University | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 15 | PSB Research | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | Zogby Analytics | R+0.3 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 17 | American Research Group | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Abt Associates | R+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 19 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | GQR | D+1.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 21 | The Winston Group | D+1.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | R+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 23 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | R+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 24 | Opinion Dynamics | D+2.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 26 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
Polls (159)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-11-01 | 955 | R+0.3 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2004-11-01 | 1026 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 1509 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 5508 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| CBS News | 2004-10-31 | 1125 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-31 | 3000 | R+1.7 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-10-31 | 1284 | R+3.3 | 1 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2004-10-31 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2004-10-31 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2004-10-31 | 1125 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2004-10-31 | 2164 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 1200 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-10-30 | 1014 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 1092 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-30 | 1573 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2004-10-30 | 1018 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-30 | 2904 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Pew Research Center | 2004-10-29 | 1925 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-29 | 1258 | EVEN | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-10-28 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2004-10-28 | 882 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-28 | 3000 | R+0.8 | 2 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-28 | 1200 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2004-10-27 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 1200 | EVEN | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2004-10-27 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-26 | 709 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2004-10-26 | 2588 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 1092 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-25 | 3000 | R+1.7 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-24 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2004-10-24 | 741 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2004-10-24 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-10-24 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-10-23 | 881 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-23 | 709 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-22 | 3000 | R+0.4 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-22 | 709 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-10-21 | 820 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-21 | 709 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2004-10-21 | 709 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-21 | 1200 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-10-20 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2004-10-20 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2004-10-20 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Abt Associates | 2004-10-20 | 803 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Abt Associates | 2004-10-20 | 803 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2004-10-19 | 976 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| The Winston Group | 2004-10-19 | 1200 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2004-10-19 | 2535 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-19 | 3000 | R+2.6 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-18 | 1200 | EVEN | 2 |
| Marist College | 2004-10-18 | 772 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-18 | 1801 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-17 | 1200 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Pew Research Center | 2004-10-17 | 709 | EVEN | 2 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-10-17 | 709 | EVEN | 2 |
| GQR | 2004-10-17 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-16 | 3000 | R+0.2 | 2 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2004-10-16 | 1125 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-10-16 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 1200 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2004-10-15 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-15 | 709 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-15 | 709 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Abt Associates | 2004-10-14 | 865 | EVEN | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-14 | 709 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Abt Associates | 2004-10-14 | 865 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2004-10-14 | 882 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2004-10-13 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-13 | 3000 | R+3.5 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-12 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-10-12 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-11 | 709 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2004-10-11 | 1711 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-10 | 3000 | R+1.6 | 1 |
| GQR | 2004-10-10 | 1000 | EVEN | 2 |
| CBS News | 2004-10-10 | 1125 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2004-10-10 | 709 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-09 | 709 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-09 | 709 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-09 | 1200 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Ohio University | 2004-10-08 | 709 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-08 | 709 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-07 | 3000 | R+3.7 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-06 | 1200 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2004-10-06 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Abt Associates | 2004-10-06 | 709 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2004-10-05 | 709 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-04 | 3000 | R+0.3 | 2 |
| GQR | 2004-10-04 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2004-10-04 | 1566 | EVEN | 2 |
| Marist College | 2004-10-04 | 709 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-04 | 709 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-03 | 800 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| SSRS | 2004-10-03 | 709 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-03 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2004-10-02 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Pew Research Center | 2004-10-02 | 709 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-02 | 709 | EVEN | 2 |
| CBS News | 2004-10-02 | 1125 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-01 | 3000 | R+3.6 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2004-10-01 | 709 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2004-09-29 | 1000 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2004-09-28 | 2225 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-28 | 3000 | R+2.4 | 0 |
| GQR | 2004-09-27 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-09-27 | 709 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| SSRS | 2004-09-26 | 709 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-25 | 709 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-09-25 | 709 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-25 | 3000 | R+1.7 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-09-24 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Pew Research Center | 2004-09-24 | 709 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-22 | 3000 | R+0.9 | 2 |
| Abt Associates | 2004-09-22 | 709 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2004-09-22 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2004-09-21 | 1660 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2004-09-21 | 709 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| CBS News | 2004-09-21 | 1083 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2004-09-21 | 709 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-21 | 1200 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2004-09-20 | 1000 | EVEN | 2 |
| Pew Research Center | 2004-09-19 | 709 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-19 | 3000 | R+2.8 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-18 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-18 | 709 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-16 | 3000 | R+4.6 | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-09-16 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2004-09-15 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2004-09-14 | 1608 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2004-09-14 | 709 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-14 | 767 | R+14.0 | 12 |
| GQR | 2004-09-13 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Pew Research Center | 2004-09-13 | 709 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-13 | 3000 | R+0.9 | 2 |
| PSB Research | 2004-09-11 | 800 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-09-11 | 803 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| The Winston Group | 2004-09-11 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2004-09-10 | 709 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-10 | 3000 | R+3.1 | 1 |
| Pew Research Center | 2004-09-09 | 709 | R+16.0 | 14 |
| TIPP Insights | 2004-09-09 | 1000 | EVEN | 2 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2004-09-09 | 1003 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2004-09-08 | 709 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| GQR | 2004-09-08 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Abt Associates | 2004-09-08 | 709 | R+12.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-08 | 1200 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-07 | 1200 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2004-09-07 | 2106 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| CBS News | 2004-09-07 | 709 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-09-07 | 709 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-07 | 3000 | R+0.7 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-04 | 709 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-04 | 3000 | R+1.1 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2004-09-03 | 709 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2004-09-02 | 709 | R+11.0 | 9 |