Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
D+4.2
79 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | CVOTER | D+2.8 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | D+3.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+3.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Leger | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 16 | CBS News | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 17 | Angus Reid Global | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 18 | The Winston Group | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 19 | Centre College | D+4.9 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | Lucid | D+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 21 | Big Village | D+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 22 | Echelon Insights | D+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 23 | icitizen | D+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 24 | TIPP Insights | R+1.5 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 25 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 26 | SurveyMonkey | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 27 | Pew Research Center | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 28 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 29 | Emerson College | R+2.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 30 | American Research Group | D+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 31 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 32 | University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | R+3.2 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 33 | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 34 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+9.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 35 | RAND (American Life Panel) | D+9.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 36 | Suffolk University | D+9.8 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 37 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 38 | KFF | D+11.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 39 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+11.3 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 40 | GQR | D+12.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 41 | Edison Research | D+12.2 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 42 | GfK Group | D+14.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 43 | Public Religion Research Institute | D+15.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Polls (178)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2016-11-06 | 940 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-06 | 3677 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Lucid | 2016-11-06 | 2521 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2016-11-06 | 1107 | R+1.5 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2016-11-05 | 2220 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-11-05 | 799 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 16639 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-11-05 | 748 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-11-05 | 1295 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-11-04 | 1282 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-11-04 | 2972 | R+3.2 | 5 |
| CBS News | 2016-11-04 | 1426 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 1500 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-04 | 2195 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-11-04 | 1482 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2016-11-03 | 1151 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-03 | 70194 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| CVOTER | 2016-11-03 | 1625 | D+2.8 | 1 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2016-11-03 | 1009 | D+3.2 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-11-03 | 2561 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2016-11-02 | 940 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-11-02 | 1107 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2016-11-01 | 1151 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2016-11-01 | 898 | D+0.5 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 2435 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-31 | 5360 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-31 | 1233 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 1500 | EVEN | 2 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-31 | 2617 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2016-10-30 | 927 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 1772 | D+7.3 | 5 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-29 | 1249 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-29 | 825 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-29 | 1772 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-28 | 2617 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-10-28 | 3145 | R+3.6 | 6 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2016-10-28 | 1165 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| CVOTER | 2016-10-27 | 1299 | D+1.1 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-27 | 40816 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-27 | 1794 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 1500 | EVEN | 2 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2016-10-26 | 2269 | D+9.1 | 7 |
| TIPP Insights | 2016-10-26 | 1039 | D+2.5 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-25 | 1158 | D+5.3 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-25 | 1824 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-25 | 2602 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2016-10-24 | 1050 | D+11.3 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-24 | 1209 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-10-24 | 1221 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2016-10-24 | 1135 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-23 | 724 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2016-10-23 | 900 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-22 | 779 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-22 | 2615 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Pew Research Center | 2016-10-22 | 2120 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| GfK Group | 2016-10-22 | 1212 | D+14.0 | 12 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-22 | 1000 | D+9.8 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-22 | 1500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-22 | 2109 | EVEN | 2 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-10-21 | 3104 | D+0.9 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-20 | 32225 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 84292 | D+3.9 | 2 |
| Centre College | 2016-10-20 | 569 | D+4.9 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2016-10-20 | 815 | D+0.1 | 2 |
| CVOTER | 2016-10-20 | 1414 | D+3.1 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-20 | 1153 | D+8.5 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-20 | 990 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2016-10-19 | 1006 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-19 | 1395 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-19 | 2127 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-18 | 1500 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-17 | 1007 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-17 | 1032 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-10-16 | 912 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-16 | 1000 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-16 | 1641 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-15 | 1187 | D+4.9 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-15 | 726 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| KFF | 2016-10-15 | 1029 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| CBS News | 2016-10-14 | 778 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-14 | 1737 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-14 | 1500 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 2016-10-14 | 692 | D+15.0 | 13 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-10-14 | 2983 | R+1.6 | 4 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-13 | 1642 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-13 | 845 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-13 | 24804 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| CVOTER | 2016-10-13 | 1325 | D+4.7 | 3 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-12 | 905 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2016-10-12 | 740 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-10-11 | 917 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2016-10-11 | 1101 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 2415 | D+6.2 | 4 |
| Leger | 2016-10-10 | 953 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-10 | 1500 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-10 | 1757 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-10 | 1636 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2016-10-10 | 1000 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-09 | 806 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-08 | 1390 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-07 | 971 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-10-07 | 2969 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 2016-10-07 | 886 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-07 | 2433 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| CVOTER | 2016-10-06 | 1350 | D+5.5 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-06 | 23329 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-06 | 1775 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-05 | 1064 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Edison Research | 2016-10-05 | 882 | D+12.2 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-05 | 1103 | D+5.9 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-10-05 | 896 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-05 | 1500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-04 | 1322 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| Pew Research Center | 2016-10-03 | 3616 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-03 | 1690 | EVEN | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-02 | 911 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-01 | 1461 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-01 | 1500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-10-01 | 1778 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-30 | 1213 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-09-30 | 2275 | R+3.9 | 6 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 2016-09-30 | 609 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2016-09-30 | 385 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2016-09-30 | 805 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-30 | 1433 | D+5.8 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-09-29 | 26925 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| CVOTER | 2016-09-29 | 1285 | R+2.5 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-09-28 | 911 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-09-28 | 1251 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-27 | 3386 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 933 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-09-27 | 1500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-09-26 | 1253 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Echelon Insights | 2016-09-26 | 1529 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-25 | 1888 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-09-25 | 1489 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-24 | 1115 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 2016-09-24 | 461 | EVEN | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-24 | 729 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-23 | 1115 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-09-23 | 2690 | R+3.4 | 6 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-09-23 | 1002 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-09-23 | 1712 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Lucid | 2016-09-22 | 1161 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-09-22 | 13598 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| CVOTER | 2016-09-22 | 1052 | D+0.7 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2016-09-21 | 651 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-09-20 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2016-09-20 | 1107 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-20 | 1098 | D+5.1 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-20 | 1560 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2016-09-19 | 990 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-09-19 | 1353 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-18 | 1065 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| RAND (American Life Panel) | 2016-09-18 | 2516 | D+9.9 | 8 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-09-18 | 922 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2016-09-17 | 758 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| GfK Group | 2016-09-17 | 1251 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| icitizen | 2016-09-17 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Lucid | 2016-09-16 | 1468 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-09-16 | 2524 | R+5.4 | 8 |
| Morning Consult | 2016-09-15 | 1639 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-09-15 | 13230 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| CVOTER | 2016-09-15 | 1203 | D+1.2 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 1137 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 2016-09-14 | 1296 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-09-13 | 867 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2016-09-13 | 1005 | D+5.2 | 3 |
| Lucid | 2016-09-13 | 1627 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-09-12 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-12 | 1087 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-12 | 800 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2016-09-11 | 916 | EVEN | 2 |
| Lucid | 2016-09-10 | 2121 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-10 | 960 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-10 | 1125 | D+0.5 | 2 |
| The Winston Group | 2016-09-10 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2016-09-09 | 2665 | R+3.1 | 5 |