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Toss-up · 2016 President
US President
In the 2016 US President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
D+4.2
79 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | CVOTER | D+2.8 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | D+3.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Leger | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | CBS News | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 16 | Angus Reid Global | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 17 | The Winston Group | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 18 | Centre College | D+4.9 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | Lucid | D+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 20 | Big Village | D+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 21 | Echelon Insights | D+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 22 | icitizen | D+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 23 | TIPP Insights | R+1.5 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 24 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 25 | SurveyMonkey | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 26 | Pew Research Center | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 27 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 28 | Emerson College | R+2.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 29 | American Research Group | D+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 30 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 31 | University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | R+3.2 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 32 | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 33 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+9.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 34 | RAND (American Life Panel) | D+9.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 35 | Suffolk University | D+9.8 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 36 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 37 | KFF | D+11.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 38 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+11.3 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 39 | GQR | D+12.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 40 | Edison Research | D+12.2 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 41 | GfK Group | D+14.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 42 | Public Religion Research Institute | D+15.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
178 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Leger2016-11-062
YouGov2016-11-062
Lucid2016-11-063
TIPP Insights2016-11-064
ABC News/The Washington Post2016-11-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 US President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 2.2 points (D+2.2).
When was the 2016 US President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.