VotePredictor
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US President

Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R)

Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+7.1
79 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.4
✓
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1GQRD+7.00.4✓
2Opinion DynamicsD+7.00.4✓
3IpsosD+7.00.4✓
4YouGovD+7.00.4✓
5Knowledge NetworksD+7.00.4✓
6American Research GroupD+8.00.6✓
7Harris Insights & AnalyticsD+8.00.6✓
8Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion StrategiesD+8.00.6✓
9Big VillageD+8.00.6✓
10Los Angeles TimesD+8.00.6✓
11VotePredictorD+8.41.0✓
12Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)D+6.01.4✓
13Pew Research CenterD+6.01.4✓
14Marist CollegeD+9.01.6✓
15CBS NewsD+9.01.6✓
16ABC News/The Washington PostD+9.01.6✓
17Big TenD+9.01.6✓
18Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance GroupD+5.02.4✓
19FTI ConsultingD+5.02.4✓
20Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion ResearchD+5.02.4✓
21Abt AssociatesD+5.02.4✓
22TIPP InsightsD+4.72.7✓
23Quinnipiac UniversityD+4.03.4✓
24Zogby AnalyticsD+11.03.6✓
25GallupD+11.03.6✓
26The Winston GroupD+3.04.4✓
27Princeton Survey Research Associates InternationalD+12.04.6✓
28CBS News/The New York TimesD+13.05.6✓
29GfK GroupD+1.06.4✓
30InsiderAdvantageEVEN7.4✗
31Public Opinion StrategiesR+3.010.4✗

Polls (200)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Marist College2008-11-03804D+9.02
American Research Group2008-11-021200D+8.01
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-11-023000D+6.01
Zogby Analytics2008-11-021226D+11.04
TIPP Insights2008-11-02981D+4.73
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-11-02400D+5.02
CBS News2008-11-02709D+9.02
Marist College2008-11-02635D+9.02
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-11-012470D+9.02
Harris Insights & Analytics2008-11-013946D+8.01
GQR2008-11-011000D+7.00
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies2008-11-011159D+8.01
Opinion Dynamics2008-11-01917D+7.00
FTI Consulting2008-11-01887D+5.02
Gallup2008-11-012400D+11.04
CBS News2008-11-01747D+13.06
Big Village2008-10-31746D+8.01
Pew Research Center2008-10-312587D+6.01
Ipsos2008-10-31760D+7.00
CBS News2008-10-31607D+13.06
CBS News2008-10-30709D+11.04
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-303000D+5.02
Marist College2008-10-29535D+7.00
TIPP Insights2008-10-29970D+4.43
FTI Consulting2008-10-29870D+7.00
Zogby Analytics2008-10-291201D+7.00
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-10-291000D+4.03
Gallup2008-10-292400D+8.01
Opinion Dynamics2008-10-28924D+3.04
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-10-281327D+8.01
CBS News/The New York Times2008-10-271005D+13.06
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-273000D+3.04
Zogby Analytics2008-10-261202D+4.03
YouGov2008-10-261000D+7.00
American Research Group2008-10-261200D+5.02
FTI Consulting2008-10-26878D+8.01
Gallup2008-10-262400D+2.05
Ipsos2008-10-25831D+6.01
YouGov2008-10-2531148D+6.01
Pew Research Center2008-10-251198D+15.08
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-243000D+8.01
Harris Insights & Analytics2008-10-241695D+6.01
TIPP Insights2008-10-24886D+3.74
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-10-241308D+7.00
Gallup2008-10-232400D+7.00
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-10-231000D+3.04
FTI Consulting2008-10-23869D+7.00
Zogby Analytics2008-10-231203D+9.02
Princeton Survey Research Associates International2008-10-22882D+12.05
Knowledge Networks2008-10-221537D+7.00
GQR2008-10-221000D+9.02
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-213000D+7.00
TIPP Insights2008-10-21886D+1.16
CBS News/The New York Times2008-10-21699D+13.06
Big Ten2008-10-211014D+9.02
Gallup2008-10-202400D+5.02
YouGov2008-10-201000D+8.01
Opinion Dynamics2008-10-20936D+9.02
FTI Consulting2008-10-20782D+5.02
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-10-201330D+11.04
American Research Group2008-10-191200D+4.03
TIPP Insights2008-10-191050D+6.01
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies2008-10-191159D+11.04
Zogby Analytics2008-10-191214D+8.01
Ipsos2008-10-18773D+8.01
GfK Group2008-10-18800D+1.06
Harris Insights & Analytics2008-10-181390D+6.01
TIPP Insights2008-10-181100D+5.32
Pew Research Center2008-10-182382D+14.07
CBS News/The New York Times2008-10-18327D+13.06
Big Village2008-10-18764D+6.01
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-183000D+4.03
Gallup2008-10-172400D+3.04
GQR2008-10-171000D+5.02
FTI Consulting2008-10-17785D+7.00
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2008-10-16709D+5.02
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-10-161000D+4.03
Zogby Analytics2008-10-161209D+4.03
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-153000D+4.03
Gallup2008-10-142400D+2.05
TIPP Insights2008-10-14850D+3.64
FTI Consulting2008-10-14817D+8.01
TIPP Insights2008-10-131100D+3.34
American Research Group2008-10-121200D+5.02
Zogby Analytics2008-10-121208D+6.01
CBS News/The New York Times2008-10-12699D+12.05
Los Angeles Times2008-10-121030D+8.01
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-123000D+5.02
YouGov2008-10-111000D+6.01
Ipsos2008-10-111036D+9.02
Pew Research Center2008-10-111191D+7.00
Gallup2008-10-112400D+10.03
FTI Consulting2008-10-11823D+6.01
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-10-10766D+10.03
GQR2008-10-101000D+10.03
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-10-091000D+8.01
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-093000D+7.00
Gallup2008-10-082784D+10.03
FTI Consulting2008-10-08838D+7.00
Opinion Dynamics2008-10-08900D+7.00
Princeton Survey Research Associates International2008-10-081035D+11.04
Zogby Analytics2008-10-081203D+5.02
Knowledge Networks2008-10-081528D+3.04
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-063000D+6.01
Gallup2008-10-052747D+9.02
Abt Associates2008-10-051053D+5.02
YouGov2008-10-051000D+3.04
American Research Group2008-10-051200D+4.03
FTI Consulting2008-10-05908D+2.05
CBS News2008-10-04616D+3.04
Ipsos2008-10-04858D+7.00
Gallup2008-10-04926D+6.01
Big Village2008-10-04694D+11.04
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies2008-10-04658D+6.01
GQR2008-10-031000D+3.04
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-10-03800D+7.00
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-033000D+7.00
Gallup2008-10-022703D+8.01
Zogby Analytics2008-10-022873D+4.03
FTI Consulting2008-10-02915D+7.00
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-09-303000D+7.00
Marist College2008-09-29943D+5.02
GfK Group2008-09-29808D+7.00
CBS News2008-09-29709D+9.02
GfK Group2008-09-29808D+7.00
GQR2008-09-291000D+4.03
FTI Consulting2008-09-29902D+5.02
Gallup2008-09-292746D+4.03
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-09-28916D+3.04
Abt Associates2008-09-281133D+7.00
Ipsos2008-09-281007D+4.03
YouGov2008-09-281000D+5.02
Pew Research Center2008-09-281181D+6.01
American Research Group2008-09-281200D+4.03
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-09-27800D+2.05
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-09-273000D+5.02
FTI Consulting2008-09-26905D+5.02
Zogby Analytics2008-09-262102D+1.06
Gallup2008-09-262719D+8.01
Zogby Analytics2008-09-244752R+2.09
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-09-243000D+5.02
Gallup2008-09-232731EVEN7
CBS News/The New York Times2008-09-23709D+5.02
YouGov2008-09-231000D+3.04
GQR2008-09-231007D+3.04
FTI Consulting2008-09-23912D+4.03
Marist College2008-09-22698D+4.03
Opinion Dynamics2008-09-22900D+6.01
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-09-213000EVEN7
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-09-211000R+1.08
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies2008-09-211085D+2.05
Los Angeles Times2008-09-21838D+6.01
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-09-21780D+8.01
American Research Group2008-09-211200D+2.05
Ipsos2008-09-20923D+1.06
Big Village2008-09-20697D+3.04
FTI Consulting2008-09-20915D+5.02
Gallup2008-09-202740D+4.03
Zogby Analytics2008-09-192331D+4.03
Harris Insights & Analytics2008-09-191562D+1.06
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2008-09-181320R+2.09
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-09-183000D+1.06
FTI Consulting2008-09-17915D+1.06
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies2008-09-171085D+2.05
Gallup2008-09-172796D+5.02
Big Ten2008-09-161114D+1.06
The Winston Group2008-09-161000D+3.04
YouGov2008-09-15917R+2.09
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-09-153000R+1.08
FTI Consulting2008-09-14909D+4.03
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-09-14800R+2.09
CBS News/The New York Times2008-09-14712D+6.01
American Research Group2008-09-141200R+3.010
Gallup2008-09-142800R+1.08
Ipsos2008-09-131046EVEN7
Quinnipiac University2008-09-13987D+4.03
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-09-131941D+2.05
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-09-123000R+3.010
Zogby Analytics2008-09-121008EVEN7
Pew Research Center2008-09-112307EVEN7
FTI Consulting2008-09-11912R+1.08
Gallup2008-09-112761R+2.09
Princeton Survey Research Associates International2008-09-101038EVEN7
Knowledge Networks2008-09-101546R+1.08
GQR2008-09-091000R+2.09
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group2008-09-09709R+4.011
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-09-093000EVEN7
Gallup2008-09-082714R+5.012
YouGov2008-09-08877D+1.06
Opinion Dynamics2008-09-08900R+3.010
FTI Consulting2008-09-08902EVEN7
InsiderAdvantage2008-09-08807EVEN7
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies2008-09-07860D+1.06
GfK Group2008-09-07812R+4.011
GfK Group2008-09-07812R+4.011
Ipsos2008-09-07876R+1.08
Public Opinion Strategies2008-09-07800R+3.010
American Research Group2008-09-071200D+1.06
Big Village2008-09-06942EVEN7
Gallup2008-09-06823R+10.017