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Toss-up · 2008 President
US President
In the 2008 US President race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+7.1
79 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+7.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Opinion Dynamics | D+7.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+7.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Knowledge Networks | D+7.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+8.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+8.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | D+8.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | D+8.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Los Angeles Times | D+8.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Pew Research Center | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Marist College | D+9.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | CBS News | D+9.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+9.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | Big Ten | D+9.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 17 | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | D+5.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 18 | FTI Consulting | D+5.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 19 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+5.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 20 | Abt Associates | D+5.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 21 | TIPP Insights | D+4.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 22 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 23 | Zogby Analytics | D+11.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 24 | Gallup | D+11.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 25 | The Winston Group | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 26 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+12.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 27 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+13.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 28 | GfK Group | D+1.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 29 | InsiderAdvantage | EVEN | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 30 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+3.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
200 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Marist College2008-11-032
American Research Group2008-11-021
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-11-021
Zogby Analytics2008-11-024
TIPP Insights2008-11-023
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2008 US President race?
Barack Obama (D) won, by about 7.4 points (D+7.4).
When was the 2008 US President election held?
It was held in November 2008.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.