Actual result
D+4.4
Final polls said
D+8.1
88 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+4.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | D+4.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | TIPP Insights | D+4.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Winston Group | D+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Innovative Research Group | D+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | John Zogby Strategies | D+5.4 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Swayable | D+5.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Lake Research Partners | D+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | SurveyMonkey | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Gravis Marketing | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Echelon Insights | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | Suffolk University | D+6.5 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | Zogby Analytics | D+2.1 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | Spry Strategies | D+1.9 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 17 | Ipsos | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 18 | RMG Research | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 19 | Tufts University Public Opinion Lab | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 20 | VotePredictor | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 21 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 22 | Research Co. | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 23 | Leger | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 24 | Morning Consult | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 25 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 26 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 27 | Angus Reid Global | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 28 | AYTM | D+9.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 29 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 30 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 31 | Change Research | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 32 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 33 | Data for Progress | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 34 | Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 35 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 36 | Pew Research Center | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 37 | University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | D+10.9 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 38 | Brandwatch Qriously | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 39 | Quinnipiac University | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 40 | Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 41 | Marist College | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 42 | KFF | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 43 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 44 | SSRS | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 45 | Cometrends | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 46 | Whitman Insight Strategies | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 47 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 48 | GBAO | D+13.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 49 | Public First | D+13.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 50 | Edison Research | D+13.3 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 51 | Opinium | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 52 | J.L. Partners | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 53 | Global Marketing Research Services | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 54 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 55 | AP-NORC | D+15.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 56 | Public Religion Research Institute | D+18.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
Polls (200)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | 2020-11-02 | 2400 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2020-11-01 | 914 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-11-01 | 2297 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2020-11-01 | 1363 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Research Co. | 2020-11-01 | 1025 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-11-01 | 28240 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 2020-11-01 | 1008 | D+5.4 | 1 |
| Swayable | 2020-11-01 | 5174 | D+5.7 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-31 | 8765 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| TIPP Insights | 2020-10-31 | 1212 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 1880 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 2020-10-31 | 3505 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Leger | 2020-10-31 | 827 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-31 | 1360 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-30 | 14663 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-30 | 1516 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-30 | 1500 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-30 | 3115 | D+5.6 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-30 | 1265 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-30 | 1200 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2020-10-30 | 1000 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| AYTM | 2020-10-30 | 700 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-29 | 41768 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2020-10-28 | 1246 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Opinium | 2020-10-28 | 1252 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-28 | 1281 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-28 | 1403 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-10-27 | 1726 | D+4.7 | 0 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-10-27 | 2359 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| J.L. Partners | 2020-10-27 | 844 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 2386 | D+7.2 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-10-27 | 1972 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-27 | 16374 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 2020-10-26 | 1573 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 29809 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-26 | 1500 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2020-10-26 | 5423 | D+10.9 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2020-10-26 | 945 | D+4.7 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-26 | 1365 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| The Winston Group | 2020-10-25 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-25 | 886 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-25 | 4790 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Tufts University Public Opinion Lab | 2020-10-25 | 1215 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-25 | 1121 | D+4.2 | 0 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2020-10-25 | 2231 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-10-25 | 1000 | D+6.5 | 2 |
| Global Marketing Research Services | 2020-10-25 | 1006 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-25 | 825 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 11714 | D+5.7 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-24 | 1350 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-24 | 1500 | D+9.1 | 5 |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 2020-10-24 | 2234 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Leger | 2020-10-24 | 834 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-24 | 15509 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-23 | 1125 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-23 | 27039 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-23 | 2000 | D+11.4 | 7 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2020-10-23 | 800 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-23 | 1842 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Spry Strategies | 2020-10-22 | 3500 | D+1.9 | 3 |
| Spry Strategies | 2020-10-22 | 3500 | R+1.4 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-21 | 2500 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| TIPP Insights | 2020-10-21 | 1029 | D+6.4 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-21 | 935 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-21 | 12000 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-20 | 811 | D+10.2 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-20 | 32217 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Cometrends | 2020-10-19 | 2500 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-19 | 1344 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-18 | 1136 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Echelon Insights | 2020-10-18 | 1006 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-18 | 949 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-18 | 1426 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-18 | 12000 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-17 | 2915 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-17 | 2500 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| GBAO | 2020-10-17 | 1150 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 2020-10-17 | 2731 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 2020-10-17 | 1000 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-17 | 987 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Leger | 2020-10-17 | 821 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-17 | 1465 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Research Co. | 2020-10-17 | 1035 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-17 | 2711 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-17 | 21339 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-16 | 1265 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| TIPP Insights | 2020-10-16 | 949 | D+5.2 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 12000 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-14 | 920 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-10-14 | 1897 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-14 | 19668 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-13 | 50908 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| J.L. Partners | 2020-10-13 | 844 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2020-10-12 | 5488 | D+11.6 | 7 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-10-12 | 2855 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-12 | 1333 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-12 | 12000 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-11 | 882 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2020-10-11 | 866 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 2020-10-11 | 752 | D+18.0 | 14 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2020-10-11 | 1000 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-11 | 10971 | D+5.6 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-10 | 1679 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-10 | 1366 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-10 | 2500 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2020-10-10 | 896 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Whitman Insight Strategies | 2020-10-10 | 1103 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| AP-NORC | 2020-10-10 | 1121 | D+15.0 | 11 |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 2020-10-10 | 2053 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 2020-10-10 | 1003 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Opinium | 2020-10-10 | 1397 | D+17.0 | 13 |
| Leger | 2020-10-10 | 841 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-09 | 1240 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-10-09 | 819 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Public First | 2020-10-09 | 2004 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| KFF | 2020-10-09 | 1015 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-09 | 12000 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-10-08 | 725 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-08 | 34460 | D+7.4 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2020-10-07 | 1000 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-07 | 882 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-06 | 863 | D+15.4 | 11 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-06 | 17249 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-10-05 | 2841 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 20168 | D+8.4 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-05 | 1364 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2020-10-05 | 1012 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-04 | 882 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 2020-10-04 | 1011 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-03 | 2500 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 2020-10-03 | 2048 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-03 | 1114 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-03 | 1001 | D+16.0 | 12 |
| Leger | 2020-10-03 | 843 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-03 | 2167 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-03 | 15478 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-03 | 2127 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Innovative Research Group | 2020-10-03 | 2435 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-02 | 17645 | D+6.3 | 2 |
| Pew Research Center | 2020-10-02 | 10543 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Global Marketing Research Services | 2020-10-02 | 971 | D+15.9 | 11 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-02 | 763 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-02 | 596 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 2020-10-02 | 1006 | D+2.4 | 2 |
| Edison Research | 2020-10-01 | 1378 | D+13.3 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-01 | 1345 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| TIPP Insights | 2020-09-30 | 1021 | D+2.7 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-30 | 2004 | D+7.7 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-30 | 882 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 2020-09-30 | 1502 | D+17.0 | 13 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2020-09-30 | 800 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-09-30 | 928 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-30 | 1146 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-30 | 12000 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-29 | 925 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-29 | 1350 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-09-29 | 24292 | D+5.6 | 1 |
| The Winston Group | 2020-09-28 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | 2020-09-28 | 4914 | D+10.6 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-27 | 864 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 2020-09-27 | 1002 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-27 | 12000 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Leger | 2020-09-26 | 854 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-09-26 | 15443 | D+5.7 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-26 | 2445 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-09-26 | 3000 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 2020-09-26 | 2273 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-26 | 809 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2020-09-26 | 833 | D+2.1 | 2 |
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 2020-09-25 | 1508 | D+18.0 | 14 |
| RMG Research | 2020-09-25 | 752 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-09-24 | 2768 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-24 | 12000 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-23 | 934 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-09-23 | 739 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-09-23 | 1237 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-23 | 950 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-09-23 | 22170 | D+7.1 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2020-09-22 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Echelon Insights | 2020-09-22 | 1018 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-22 | 1125 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-22 | 2500 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-22 | 740 | D+13.3 | 9 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-21 | 12000 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-21 | 1124 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-09-20 | 9248 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-20 | 889 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2020-09-20 | 2803 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-19 | 1988 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-09-19 | 3000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-19 | 1302 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 2020-09-19 | 1230 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Brandwatch Qriously | 2020-09-19 | 2134 | D+7.8 | 3 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-19 | 1430 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Leger | 2020-09-19 | 830 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-18 | 12000 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| J.L. Partners | 2020-09-18 | 4053 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-18 | 2000 | D+11.3 | 7 |
| TIPP Insights | 2020-09-18 | 962 | D+5.6 | 1 |
| RMG Research | 2020-09-18 | 773 | D+6.0 | 2 |