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Toss-up · 2020 President
US President
In the 2020 US President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.4
Final polls said
D+8.1
88 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+4.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | D+4.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | TIPP Insights | D+4.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Winston Group | D+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Innovative Research Group | D+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | John Zogby Strategies | D+5.4 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Swayable | D+5.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Lake Research Partners | D+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | SurveyMonkey | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Gravis Marketing | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Echelon Insights | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | Suffolk University | D+6.5 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | Zogby Analytics | D+2.1 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | Spry Strategies | D+1.9 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 17 | Ipsos | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 18 | RMG Research | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 19 | Tufts University Public Opinion Lab | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 20 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 21 | Research Co. | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 22 | Leger | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 23 | Morning Consult | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 24 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 25 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 26 | Angus Reid Global | D+8.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 27 | AYTM | D+9.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 28 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 29 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 30 | Change Research | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 31 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 32 | Data for Progress | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 33 | Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 34 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 35 | Pew Research Center | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 36 | University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research | D+10.9 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 37 | Brandwatch Qriously | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 38 | Quinnipiac University | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 39 | Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 40 | Marist College | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 41 | KFF | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 42 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 43 | SSRS | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 44 | Cometrends | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 45 | Whitman Insight Strategies | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 46 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 47 | GBAO | D+13.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 48 | Public First | D+13.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 49 | Edison Research | D+13.3 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 50 | Opinium | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 51 | J.L. Partners | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 52 | Global Marketing Research Services | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 53 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 54 | AP-NORC | D+15.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 55 | Public Religion Research Institute | D+18.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
200 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Lake Research Partners2020-11-021
Ipsos2020-11-013
Harris Insights & Analytics2020-11-010
YouGov2020-11-016
Research Co.2020-11-014
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 US President race?
Joe Biden (D) won, by about 4.4 points (D+4.4).
When was the 2020 US President election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.