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US President
Actual result
R+1.5
Final polls said
D+1.3
93 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+1.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies | R+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quantus Insights | R+0.8 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Data Poll | R+0.7 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+0.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | R+0.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO | R+2.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | TIPP Insights | R+0.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | J.L. Partners | R+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | SSRS | EVEN | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | Rasmussen Reports | R+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Emerson College | D+0.2 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | YouGov | D+0.5 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 17 | Leger | D+0.9 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Suffolk University | D+0.9 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 19 | Tufts University | D+1.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 20 | RMG Research | D+1.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 21 | Patriot Polling | D+1.3 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+1.5 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 23 | American Pulse Research & Polling | D+1.8 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 24 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 25 | Research Co. | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 26 | Morning Consult | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 27 | Echelon Insights | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 28 | Angus Reid Global | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 29 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 30 | Paradigm | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 31 | Cygnal | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 32 | John Zogby Strategies | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 33 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 34 | Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 35 | OH Predictive Insights | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 36 | Deltapoll | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 37 | Monmouth University | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 38 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 39 | RABA Research | D+4.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 40 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+4.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 41 | Big Village | D+6.6 | 8.1 | ✗ |
Polls (93)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 2703 | R+1.1 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2024-11-02 | 973 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-11-02 | 1411 | R+0.3 | 1 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 1003 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 1115 | D+1.3 | 3 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 2024-11-02 | 1005 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Leger | 2024-11-01 | 886 | D+0.9 | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-11-01 | 1305 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2024-11-01 | 1297 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 2463 | R+1.6 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 671 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2024-10-31 | 1088 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-31 | 600 | R+0.1 | 1 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 1000 | R+0.5 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-31 | 3759 | D+1.5 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 1000 | D+0.2 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 3490 | R+1.6 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-30 | 1152 | D+0.5 | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-30 | 1249 | R+0.8 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-30 | 8918 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2024-10-30 | 2267 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2024-10-29 | 822 | D+1.8 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-29 | 1265 | EVEN | 2 |
| RABA Research | 2024-10-29 | 781 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Quantus Insights | 2024-10-29 | 1832 | R+0.8 | 1 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-29 | 800 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-29 | 8868 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-29 | 1328 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-28 | 3718 | D+1.5 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-28 | 1302 | D+0.9 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-28 | 8999 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Big Data Poll | 2024-10-28 | 2814 | R+0.7 | 1 |
| J.L. Partners | 2024-10-27 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-27 | 1310 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-27 | 1291 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 9148 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 3032 | R+2.1 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-26 | 1475 | EVEN | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-26 | 1288 | EVEN | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-26 | 8807 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2024-10-26 | 850 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | 2024-10-26 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2024-10-25 | 1928 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Cygnal | 2024-10-25 | 1507 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-25 | 8472 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 2024-10-25 | 707 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-25 | 1292 | EVEN | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-24 | 8443 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-24 | 2154 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-24 | 1333 | EVEN | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-23 | 1000 | EVEN | 2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-23 | 1357 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-23 | 8669 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-23 | 911 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-22 | 800 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Tufts University | 2024-10-22 | 633 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-22 | 1294 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-22 | 8882 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-21 | 8914 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-21 | 2516 | R+0.5 | 1 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-21 | 1294 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-21 | 1704 | EVEN | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-21 | 1189 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-21 | 1244 | R+1.5 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-20 | 1293 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-20 | 1268 | EVEN | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 8940 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2024-10-20 | 1913 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO | 2024-10-20 | 1500 | R+2.5 | 1 |
| Deltapoll | 2024-10-20 | 3041 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2024-10-20 | 1314 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2024-10-20 | 1592 | D+6.6 | 8 |
| Monmouth University | 2024-10-19 | 802 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-19 | 1244 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-19 | 1189 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-19 | 12546 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Paradigm | 2024-10-19 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-19 | 8570 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-18 | 8170 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-18 | 1254 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2024-10-18 | 3307 | D+2.5 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-17 | 8204 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-17 | 1223 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2024-10-16 | 1000 | D+0.9 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-16 | 8484 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-16 | 1257 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Quantus Insights | 2024-10-16 | 1045 | D+0.8 | 2 |
| RMG Research | 2024-10-15 | 2950 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-15 | 1228 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-15 | 8756 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-15 | 800 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-15 | 1000 | D+0.3 | 2 |