← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 President
US President
In the 2024 US President race, the Republican (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.5
Final polls said
D+1.3
93 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+1.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies | R+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quantus Insights | R+0.8 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Data Poll | R+0.7 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | R+0.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO | R+2.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | TIPP Insights | R+0.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | J.L. Partners | R+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | SSRS | EVEN | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Rasmussen Reports | R+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | Emerson College | D+0.2 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | YouGov | D+0.5 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | Leger | D+0.9 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | Suffolk University | D+0.9 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 18 | Tufts University | D+1.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 19 | RMG Research | D+1.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 20 | Patriot Polling | D+1.3 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+1.5 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 22 | American Pulse Research & Polling | D+1.8 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 23 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 24 | Research Co. | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 25 | Morning Consult | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 26 | Echelon Insights | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 27 | Angus Reid Global | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 28 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 29 | Paradigm | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 30 | Cygnal | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 31 | John Zogby Strategies | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 32 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 33 | Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 34 | OH Predictive Insights | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 35 | Deltapoll | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 36 | Monmouth University | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 37 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 38 | RABA Research | D+4.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 39 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+4.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 40 | Big Village | D+6.6 | 8.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
93 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-030
Ipsos2024-11-024
TIPP Insights2024-11-021
Research Co.2024-11-024
Patriot Polling2024-11-023
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 US President race?
the Republican (R) won, by about 1.5 points (R+1.5).
When was the 2024 US President election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.