← all past elections
Toss-up · 2003 Governor
California Governor
In the 2003 California Governor race, Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
R+17.1
Final polls said
R+15.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIGresearch | R+19.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | R+15.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Knowledge Networks | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elway Research | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Los Angeles Times | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Baselice & Associates | R+4.0 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+2.0 | 19.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2003-10-055
BIGresearch2003-10-042
SurveyUSA2003-10-042
Elway Research2003-10-039
SurveyUSA2003-10-033
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2003 California Governor race?
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) won, by about 17.1 points (R+17.1).
When was the 2003 California Governor election held?
It was held in November 2003.