Actual result
R+17.1
Final polls said
R+15.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIGresearch | R+19.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | R+15.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Knowledge Networks | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elway Research | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Los Angeles Times | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Baselice & Associates | R+4.0 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+2.0 | 19.1 | ✗ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2003-10-05 | 294 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| BIGresearch | 2003-10-04 | 1105 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-10-04 | 294 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| Elway Research | 2003-10-03 | 1000 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-10-03 | 294 | R+20.0 | 3 |
| Knowledge Networks | 2003-09-30 | 702 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-09-29 | 294 | R+17.0 | 0 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2003-09-28 | 894 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2003-09-27 | 815 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| Gallup | 2003-09-26 | 581 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| Baselice & Associates | 2003-09-24 | 804 | R+4.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-09-21 | 789 | R+7.0 | 10 |
| Knowledge Networks | 2003-09-16 | 702 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2003-09-13 | 1033 | D+2.0 | 19 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2003-09-08 | 922 | D+5.0 | 22 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-09-07 | 666 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2003-09-05 | 505 | D+5.0 | 22 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-08-24 | 572 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2003-08-18 | 801 | D+13.0 | 30 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2003-08-12 | 500 | D+3.0 | 20 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2003-08-12 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 12 |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2003-08-10 | 510 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-08-09 | 476 | R+34.0 | 17 |
| Gallup | 2003-08-09 | 562 | R+25.0 | 8 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2003-08-08 | 508 | R+10.0 | 7 |