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Toss-up · 2003 Governor
California Governor
In the 2003 California Governor race, Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
R+17.1
Final polls said
R+15.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIGresearch | R+19.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | R+15.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Knowledge Networks | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elway Research | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Los Angeles Times | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Baselice & Associates | R+4.0 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+2.0 | 19.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2003-10-055
BIGresearch2003-10-042
SurveyUSA2003-10-042
Elway Research2003-10-039
SurveyUSA2003-10-033
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2003 California Governor race?
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) won, by about 17.1 points (R+17.1).
When was the 2003 California Governor election held?
It was held in November 2003.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.