Democratic
Lee McInnis
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Rogers favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+40.4
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+45.52026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Mike Rogers
Incumbent representative for AL-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AL-3. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AL-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
'See You in November': Progressives Welcome the Fight as AIPAC Plots Round Two Against El-Sayed
After setting over $30 million on fire in Michigan's Democratic US Senate primary, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee is reportedly plotting round two against progressive epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed—this time seeking to boost his Republican genera…
Common Dreams · August 6, 2026
El-Sayed wins Michigan's primary. And, Fauci faces contempt of Congress vote
Abdul El-Sayed has won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary and will face Republican Congressman Mike Rogers in the midterms. And, today, Dr. Anthony Fauci faces a contempt of Congress vote.
NPR · August 6, 2026
How Abdul El-Sayed went from political oblivion to progressive breakthrough in Michigan Senate race
Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won Michigan's U.S. Senate primary, defeating Representative Haley Stevens. He will now face Republican Mike Rogers in the general election contest. El-Sayed's progressive agenda overcame significant outside spending and establishmen…
The Times of India · August 6, 2026
Transcript: What El-Sayed’s Narrow Win Tells Us About the Democrats
This is a lightly edited transcript of the August 5 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Perry Bacon: I’m Perry Bacon, the host. Two great guests. Julia Azari is a political scie…
The New Republic · August 5, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed · Michigan Senate
‘No place like Mackinac’: Mike Rogers trolls Abdul el Sayed after hot mic moment emerges
Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers brought attention to Abdul el Sayed’s disdain for the state’s beloved Mackinac Island with a trolling post. The left-wing Senate hopeful’s hot-mic comment regarding his dislike of the island, captured in a 2020…
Freerepublic.com · Today
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗