Democratic
Amanda Pusczek
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Alabama District 4 election, 2026
Amanda Pusczek vs. Robert Aderholt on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Robert Aderholt favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+59.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+66.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Robert Aderholt
Incumbent representative for AL-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AL-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Robert AderholtREP · incumbent$1.2M raised
Spent $1.5MCash on hand $720k1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Defense & Aerospace$80k
- Retired$60k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$40k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$23k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$22k
States
- AL$437k
- VA$56k
- DC$13k
- FL$13k
- NV$13k
Amanda PusczekDEM$22k raised
Spent $19kCash on hand $2kDebts $12k51% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$3k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$210
States
- AL$4k
- TX$500
- LA$300
- NV$250
- WA$250
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AL-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Alabama's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Stampede of GOP blunders has achieved the unimaginable — given Dems a grasp on Alabama
There’s a hypothesis I can’t shake after years of observations.Alabama Republicans are getting bad at politics.So far, that hasn’t threatened their hegemony. The party controls all state offices; holds seven of the state’s nine congressional seats and enjoys …
Raw Story · July 27, 2026
Trump moves to gut library and museum funding
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is looking to eliminate funding in fiscal 2027 for the agency that serves as the primary federal funding source for libraries and museums nationwide.But congressional appropriators — who rebuffed similar efforts to gut the …
Raw Story · April 24, 2026
Robert Aderholt, Barry Moore: FDA approval of new generic abortion pill ‘endangers women’s health’
Two members of Alabama’s congressional delegation on Tuesday criticized the FDA’s recent approval of a new generic abortion pill. | Alabama News
1819news.com · October 9, 2025
144 Members of Congress Urge President Trump to Roll Back Joe Biden’s Abortion Agenda
U.S. Senators Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) and James Lankford (R-OK) together with Representatives Chris Smith (R-NJ) and Robert Aderholt (R-AL) sent a letter signed by 144 members of Congress to President Donald Trump on Tuesday. This letter lets President Trump …
Freerepublic.com · January 22, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗