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Alabama District 2 election, 2026

Shomari Figures vs. Rhett Marques on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast
Rhett Marques favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+8.5
78%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+14.5
2026 national environment
D+6.6
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Republican

Rhett Marques

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AL-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AL-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Alabama's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Shomari Figures(D)D+9.2
2010Martha Roby(R)R+2.2
2008Bobby N. Bright(D)D+0.6

Candidate news

Trump makes 'confounding decision' in deep-red state as Dems make other gains: report

President Donald Trump is tentatively planning a rally in deep-red Alabama next week, even as Democrats signal they may spend money in Kansas and other Republican strongholds they once considered out of reach.Politico reported that the rally is penciled in fo…

Raw Story · September 25, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump

House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…

The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Donald Trump's Major Student Loan Change Would Be Reversed Under Bill

A new bill introduced by Representative Shomari Figures, an Alabama Democrat, would reverse one of the most significant student loan changes enacted under President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill. The proposal, known as the Restoring Opportunity for Ad…

Biztoc.com · September 2, 2026
Every House Member Who’s Still Not at Work After a Five-Week Vacation

The House of Representatives has returned from its five-week summer vacation, but for more than three dozen members that extended break apparently wasn’t enough.According to the House clerk, 46 lawmakers failed to make it back to Washington in time for the fi…

The New Republic · September 1, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: AL-1 · AL-3