Democratic
Andrew Sneed
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Alabama District 5 election, 2026
Andrew Sneed vs. Dale Strong on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Dale Strong favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+22.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+29.52026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Dale Strong
Incumbent representative for AL-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AL-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Dale StrongREP · incumbent$1.8M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $1.1MDebts $240k1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Defense & Aerospace$86k
- Legal & Professional Services$65k
- Retired$62k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$35k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$30k
States
- AL$491k
- VA$107k
- FL$50k
- DC$29k
- CA$24k
Andrew SneedDEM$917k raised
Spent $669kCash on hand $248k14% from donors under $200Self-funded $20k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- SNEED, ANDREW$20k
- DURHAM, RYAN$15k
- COLEY, STEPHEN$14k
- ABLES, SANDRA$11k
- BELMONT, SHERI$11k
Industries
- Unemployed$225k
- Retired$93k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$39k
- Not Reported$32k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$25k
States
- AL$681k
- TN$24k
- NY$12k
- TX$7k
- GA$5k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AL-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Alabama's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'Ask me in 60 days': GOP lawmakers mysteriously refuse to pledge whether they'll run again
More lawmakers could be joining the Republican exodus from the U.S. House of Representatives.About two dozen GOP House members have already said they don't plan to seek re-election, and NOTUS surveyed more than 120 members – about half the House Republican Co…
Raw Story · December 18, 2025
House Golden Dome Caucus co-chairman urges end of continuing resolutions to fund defense system (Brady Knox/Washington Examiner)
Brady Knox / Washington Examiner: House Golden Dome Caucus co-chairman urges end of continuing resolutions to fund defense system — House Golden Dome Caucus co-chairman Dale Strong (R-AL) urged Congress to decide on a budget to fund President Donald Trump's…
Memeorandum.com · September 10, 2025
'Escorted into a car': GOP Congressman flees Alabama voters after making 'meet-up' private
News19 reporter Peyton Newman said voters watched U.S. Rep. Dale Strong (R-Ala.) duck behind closed doors and head to his car rather than meet with voters at an advertised “Quarterly Meet-up with Dale Strong” on Thursday.“I was told media coverage was not all…
Raw Story · August 29, 2025
Alabama Republicans target transgender Space Camp employee
Alabama Rep. Dale Strong called for the U.S. Space & Rocket Center to "immediately remove" a transgender employee who works for its Space Camp program.
NBC News · March 13, 2024
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗