Democratic
Terri Green
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Rick Crawford favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+41.8
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+44.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Rick Crawford
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Steve Parsons · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AR-1. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AR-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗