VotePredictor
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Arkansas District 1 election, 2026

Terri Green vs. Rick Crawford. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Rick Crawford favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+38.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+45.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Terri Green

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Rick Crawford

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Steve Parsons · Libertarian

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AR-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Rick CrawfordREP · incumbent$1.1M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $853k1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITICAL ACTION CO$10k
  2. NATIONAL CATTLEMEN'S BEEF ASSOCIATION PAC$10k
  3. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS PAC$8k
  4. EAST, MICHAEL D. MR.$7k
  5. EMBACH, JENNIFER MS.$7k

Industries

  1. Self-Employed & Freelance$67k
  2. Retired$40k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$21k
  4. Technology & Communications$13k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$11k

States

  1. AR$288k
  2. CA$27k
  3. VA$18k
  4. FL$16k
  5. NY$7k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Terri GreenDEM$124k raised
Spent $115kCash on hand $9kDebts $20k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $17k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GREEN, TERRI$14k
  2. BROCK, GAYLE$4k
  3. GREEN, TERRI$3k
  4. HOWINGTON, HARVEY$2k
  5. MOORE, ROBERT$2k

Industries

  1. Retired$27k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$9k
  3. Unemployed$8k
  4. Not Reported$7k
  5. Government Relations and Lobbying Services$1k

States

  1. AR$64k
  2. IL$1k
  3. TN$1k
  4. VA$600
  5. WA$600
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AR-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Arkansas's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2014Rick Crawford(R)R+30.9
2012Rick Crawford(R)R+17.1
2010Rick Crawford(R)R+8.3

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: AL-7 · AR-2