Arkansas District 2 election, 2026

Chris Jones vs. French Hill.

VotePredictor forecast

French Hill favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+16.9

99%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+15.2

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Chris Jones

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

French Hill

Incumbent representative for AR-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

Hendrix College2026-08-13D+4.0

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AR-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Arkansas's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2020French Hill(R)R+10.7

2018French Hill(R)R+6.3

2014French Hill(R)R+8.3

2012Tim Griffin(R)R+15.7

2010Tim Griffin(R)R+19.6

2006Victor F. Snyder(D)D+21.1

2004Victor F. Snyder(D)D+16.3

1998Victor F. Snyder(D)D+15.9

Candidate news

'You're not making sense!' Explosion as Scott Bessent deflects on inflation at hearing

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent snapped at Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) instead of answering her question about whether tariffs have pushed inflation too high during an explosive clash on Tuesday.The exchange came before the House Financial Services Committee, …

Raw Story · September 15, 2026

Republicans are quiet-quitting Trump's big party with suspiciously timed conflicts: report

GOP candidates in competitive House races told a columnist they don't know whether they'll appear at President Donald Trump's midterm convention because of scheduling conflicts.In a Tuesday column, political commentator Joe Perticone noted a "conveniently tim…

Raw Story · September 1, 2026

What’s Driving Kamala Harris’s Midterm Endorsement Strategy?

You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Kamala Harris has been flexing her political power in the South this year, most r…

The New Republic · August 27, 2026

GOPer Awkwardly Praises Bill Trump Just Rage-Torched

Arkansas Republican Rep. French Hill didn't get the memo. Trump canceled the signing of the sweeping bipartisan bill that could boost the U.S. housing supply and lower costs for millions of renters and buyers nationwide. Of course he did. Is anyone surprised …

Crooksandliars.com · June 24, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: AR-1 · AR-3