Democratic
Chris Jones
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
French Hill favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+6.0
84%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+16.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging D+4.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+12.3.
Republican
French Hill
Incumbent representative for AR-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Hendrix College2026-08-13D+4.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AR-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arkansas's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Clarity Act Sponsor Says SEC, CFTC Crypto Rules Cannot Replace Legislation
House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill said the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission cannot provide the regulatory certainty cryptocurrency markets need through administrative rulemaking alone. Hill ackn…
pymnts.com · October 8, 2026
House Finance panel chair says regulator actions on crypto ‘fall short’ of CLARITY bill
Representative French Hill hopes lawmakers could pass a cryptocurrency market structure bill before the next session of Congress in 2027 as SEC and CFTC actions weren’t sufficient
Cointelegraph · October 7, 2026
Fairshake Backs 32 House Candidates As Crypto Election Spending Ramps Up
TL;DR Fairshake has named 32 U.S. House candidates it plans to support ahead of the November midterms. Six races are receiving $1 million in outside spending each, for an initial disclosed commitment of $6 million. The slate is bipartisan, with 19 Republicans…
newsBTC · October 6, 2026
Hill: Trump’s ‘lack of favorability’ creating challenging politics
House Financial Services Chair French Hill said he has “no concerns” about winning back his Arkansas seat in the upcoming midterm elections, but the six-term House member acknowledged the political headwinds for his party. “I consider the atmosphere a very to…
Biztoc.com · October 2, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗