VotePredictor
← all House races

Arkansas District 2 election, 2026

Chris Jones vs. French Hill. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
French Hill favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+4.0
77%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+16.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging D+2.0
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+11.0.

Democratic

Chris Jones

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Emerson CollegeGrade A-10-14R+4.0
Hendrix CollegeGrade B+08-13D+4.0
2040 Strategy Group (via Wikipedia)05-08D+6.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
French HillREP · incumbent$5.3M raised
Spent $5.2MCash on hand $1.5M8% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. TEAM HILL$1.2M
  2. WAGNER HILL VICTORY FUND$32k
  3. FORD, JOE T. MR.$14k
  4. JAFFE, MORRIS MR. JR$14k
  5. CARLTON, PATRICIA MRS.$11k

Industries

  1. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$436k
  2. Not Reported$345k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$126k
  4. Technology & Communications$59k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$32k

States

  1. AR$912k
  2. TX$276k
  3. NY$169k
  4. CA$110k
  5. FL$101k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Chris JonesDEM$2.0M raised
Spent $1.7MCash on hand $274k52% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. ORTHWEIN, MEREDITH$9k
  2. ADAMS, JERRY$8k
  3. KHAN, ALI$7k
  4. DARDEN, PAUL$7k
  5. GEORGE, JESTON$7k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$663k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$118k
  3. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$58k
  4. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$24k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$21k

States

  1. AR$1.0M
  2. MA$58k
  3. GA$42k
  4. CA$36k
  5. IL$32k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AR-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Arkansas's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2020French Hill(R)R+10.7
2018French Hill(R)R+6.3
2014French Hill(R)R+8.3
2012Tim Griffin(R)R+15.7
2010Tim Griffin(R)R+19.6
2006Victor F. Snyder(D)D+21.1
2004Victor F. Snyder(D)D+16.3
1998Victor F. Snyder(D)D+15.9

Candidate news

Crypto ally French Hill wins reelection but set to lose House chair

Republican French Hill secured another term in Congress but will lose his leadership of the House Financial Services Committee when Democrats take control in January.

Cointelegraph · November 5, 2026
Clarity Act Sponsor Says SEC, CFTC Crypto Rules Cannot Replace Legislation

House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill said the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission cannot provide the regulatory certainty cryptocurrency markets need through administrative rulemaking alone. Hill ackn…

pymnts.com · October 8, 2026
House Finance panel chair says regulator actions on crypto ‘fall short’ of CLARITY bill

Representative French Hill hopes lawmakers could pass a cryptocurrency market structure bill before the next session of Congress in 2027 as SEC and CFTC actions weren’t sufficient

Cointelegraph · October 7, 2026
Fairshake Backs 32 House Candidates As Crypto Election Spending Ramps Up

TL;DR Fairshake has named 32 U.S. House candidates it plans to support ahead of the November midterms. Six races are receiving $1 million in outside spending each, for an initial disclosed commitment of $6 million. The slate is bipartisan, with 19 Republicans…

newsBTC · October 6, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: AR-1 · AR-3