Actual result
R+8.3
Final polls said
R+3.8
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | R+5.5 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.3 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | PSB Research | R+12.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Impact Research | D+2.0 | 10.3 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 2010-10-14 | 436 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| Impact Research | 2010-10-12 | 400 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-11 | 442 | R+5.5 | 3 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-06 | 409 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| Impact Research | 2010-09-15 | 400 | D+2.0 | 10 |