Democratic
Yassamin Ansari
Incumbent representative for AZ-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
Arizona District 3 election, 2026
Yassamin Ansari vs. Republican nominee TBD. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Yassamin Ansari favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+46.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+40.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Alan Aversa · No Labels
- David Redkey · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Yassamin AnsariDEM · incumbent$1.7M raised
Spent $1.3MCash on hand $411kDebts $70k13% from donors under $200Self-funded $66k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$282k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$136k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$80k
- Legal & Professional Services$46k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$21k
States
- AZ$445k
- CA$252k
- OK$58k
- TX$58k
- VA$50k
Alan AversaAIP$774 raised
Spent $991Cash on hand $2560% from donors under $200Self-funded $524
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- AVERSA, ALAN$522
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arizona's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Congresswoman calls for artificial superintelligence ban after Democrats' seismic midterm sweep
Rep. Yassamin Ansari of Arizona is asking her party to focus on AI issues.
Slashdot.org · November 5, 2026
Congresswoman calls for artificial superintelligence ban after Democrats' seismic midterm sweep
Rep. Yassamin Ansari of Arizona is asking her party to focus on AI issues.
Tom's Hardware UK · November 5, 2026
National Groups Endorse Impeachment Push as Hegseth Reportedly Eyes US Senate Seat in Tennessee
A trio of national advocacy organizations and a constitutional scholar on Wednesday endorsed articles of impeachment that Republican US Rep. Thomas Massie filed last month against Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is reportedly eyeing a soon-to-be-vacant S…
Common Dreams · October 28, 2026
Rising star Democrat allegedly in an age-gap relationship with controversial influencer she's investigating over so-called 'dark money operation'
Arizona Representative Yassamin Ansari, 34, has been romantically linked to influencer Jack Cocchiarella, 24.
Dailymail.com · October 24, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗