Democratic
Jonathan Nez
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Arizona District 2 election, 2026
Jonathan Nez vs. Eli Crane. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Eli Crane favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+6.7
90%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+15.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging R+3.7Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+10.2.
Republican
Eli Crane
Incumbent representative for AZ-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Curtis Goodwin · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Eli CraneREP · incumbent$11.9M raised
Spent $10.9MCash on hand $1.3M35% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$5.2M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$327k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
- Homemaker$33k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$30k
States
- TX$845k
- CA$745k
- FL$681k
- AZ$608k
- GA$234k
Jonathan NezDEM$5.8M raised
Spent $5.4MCash on hand $506k40% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.8M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$285k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$104k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$65k
- Technology & Communications$44k
States
- AZ$782k
- CA$579k
- NY$301k
- MA$170k
- WA$135k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arizona's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republicans yank attack ad after blunder smears one of Trump’s own convention speakers
A Trump-aligned super PAC pulled its latest attack ad against an Arizona Democrat after it repeatedly showed the wrong man, and the face it used belongs to a Republican who once spoke at Trump’s convention.The ad from No Going Back PAC targeted Jonathan Nez, …
Raw Story · October 9, 2026
Republicans are quiet-quitting Trump's big party with suspiciously timed conflicts: report
GOP candidates in competitive House races told a columnist they don't know whether they'll appear at President Donald Trump's midterm convention because of scheduling conflicts.In a Tuesday column, political commentator Joe Perticone noted a "conveniently tim…
Raw Story · September 1, 2026
Secretary Rollins Visits Douglas Port of Entry, Announces $25 Million Commitment for New Arizona Sterile Fly Dispersal Facility
Secretary Highlights USDA’s Readiness Ahead of Douglas Port Reopening and Continued Aggressive Response to New World Screwworm (Washington, D.C., July 29, 2026) – Today, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins visited the livestock inspection faciliti…
Equinechronicle.com · July 30, 2026
Rep. Eli Crane Says Citizens Can Get H-1B Curbs from Congress
Citizens can win curbs on the H-1B visa worker program if they swamp legislators with visits, calls, and statements, Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ) told Breitbart News. The post Rep. Eli Crane Says Citizens Can Get H-1B Curbs from Congress appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · May 19, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗