Democratic
Greg Stanton
Incumbent representative for AZ-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Greg Stanton favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+13.0
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+7.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Zuhdi Jasser
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Tisha Benoit · No Labels
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Arizona's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
How Popular Is Hakeem Jeffries Among Democrats?
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 5, 2026
Arizona House primary brings Israel's U.S. influence campaign to the ballot
Progressive challenger Kai Newkirk argues that Israel's public opinion campaign constitutes election meddling in favor of the AIPAC-endorsed Rep. Greg Stanton.
Haaretz · July 20, 2026
Rising Momentum for Another Progressive Champion
A sleeper race in Arizona could see community organizer Kai Newkirk upset Rep. Greg Stanton in a House race in the Phoenix area. The post Rising Momentum for Another Progressive Champion appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · July 15, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗