Democratic
Greg Stanton
Incumbent representative for AZ-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Greg Stanton favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+2.3
63%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+7.82026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Zuhdi Jasser
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Tisha Benoit · No Labels
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-4. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
How Popular Is Hakeem Jeffries Among Democrats?
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 5, 2026
Arizona House primary brings Israel's U.S. influence campaign to the ballot
Progressive challenger Kai Newkirk argues that Israel's public opinion campaign constitutes election meddling in favor of the AIPAC-endorsed Rep. Greg Stanton.
Haaretz · July 20, 2026
Rising Momentum for Another Progressive Champion
A sleeper race in Arizona could see community organizer Kai Newkirk upset Rep. Greg Stanton in a House race in the Phoenix area. The post Rising Momentum for Another Progressive Champion appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · July 15, 2026
Dem congressional candidate files bombshell election interference complaint with state AG
Noah Kai Newkirk, a prominent activist and Democratic congressional candidate from Arizona, filed an official complaint with the state’s attorney general recently alleging that the state of Israel had interfered in the Arizona Democratic primary election usin…
Raw Story · June 14, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗