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Toss-up · 2018 House
Arizona House
In the 2018 Arizona House race, Paul Gosar (R) won by about 38 points.
Actual result
R+37.7
Final polls said
R+32.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+32.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Noble Predictive Insights2018-09-256
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arizona House race?
Paul Gosar (R) won, by about 37.7 points (R+37.7).
When was the 2018 Arizona House election held?
It was held in November 2018.