Democratic
Kevin Mullin
Incumbent representative for CA-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 15 election, 2026
Kevin Mullin vs. Charles Hoelter on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Kevin Mullin favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+55.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+49.62026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Charles Hoelter
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-15. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 15th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
California congressman proposes bill to reclassify air rifles as firearms
I guess they think you'll shoot your eye out? This legislation introduced by Kevin Mullin, a California Democrat, was sparked by a tragic incident where a young man used an air rifle to commit suicide. Former Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who was shot in 2…
Freerepublic.com · September 28, 2026
The Ukraine Bill That House Dems Have No Intention of Passing
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThe Ukraine bill that House Dems have no intention of passingFor years, Democrats …
The New Republic · September 2, 2026
Waymo, robotaxi operators face fresh scrutiny over emergency response failures | TechCrunch
Rep. Kevin Mullin (D-California ) has proposed bill would direct federal regulators to establish minimum national safety standards for autonomous vehicle operators — action that follows a series of incidents in which robotaxis blocked fire trucks and impeded …
TechCrunch · July 28, 2026
Eric Swalwell's campaign scrambles to scrub website as endorsers jump ship
Since reporting emerged on Friday that multiple women have accused Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) of sexual misconduct, and one has accused him of assault while she was intoxicated, prominent figures who have endorsed his campaign for governor of California have b…
Raw Story · April 10, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗