Democratic
Sam Liccardo
Incumbent representative for CA-16. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 16 election, 2026
Sam Liccardo vs. Peter Soulé on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Sam Liccardo favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+55.5
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+49.92026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Peter Soulé
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-16. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 16th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
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A group of House members is pressing Speaker Mike Johnson to scrap the chamber's looming six-week recess and keep Congress in Washington until it passes safeguards on artificial intelligence, warning of "catastrophic risk posed by advanced artificial intellig…
Raw Story · September 11, 2026
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
What Dems Really Think About the NYT’s DNC Report
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · July 28, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗