Democratic
Sam Liccardo
Incumbent representative for CA-16. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 16 election, 2026
Sam Liccardo vs. Peter Soulé on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Sam Liccardo favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+57.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+49.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Peter Soulé
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-16. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Sam LiccardoDEM · incumbent$3.9M raised
Spent $1.7MCash on hand $2.3M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- LICCARDO VICTORY FUND$1.3M
- REINHARD, ELI$17k
- SHEPHERD, ANDREW$14k
- WECKER, JEFFREY$14k
- TENEV, VLAD$13k
Industries
- Unemployed$438k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$195k
- Technology & Communications$127k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$85k
- Legal & Professional Services$66k
States
- CA$1.2M
- DC$68k
- NY$66k
- MD$40k
- FL$31k
Peter SouléREP$4k raised
Spent $147Cash on hand $4kDebts $4k9% from donors under $200Self-funded $100
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$4k
States
- CA$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 16th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗