Democratic
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
California District 23 election, 2026
Tessa Lynn Hodge vs. Jay Obernolte on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Jay Obernolte favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+23.8
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+19.92026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Jay Obernolte
Incumbent representative for CA-23. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-23. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-23; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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The New Republic · September 16, 2026
'We Cannot Wait for Disaster to Strike': Beyer Leads Bipartisan Push in House to Urgently Regulate AI
A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives on Wednesday released a joint letter urging congressional leaders to take immediate action to regulate the artificial intelligence industry.The group, led by Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), urged …
Common Dreams · September 16, 2026
This Could Be the Biggest Issue of 2027. Dems Are Split on It.
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThis could be the biggest issue of 2027. Dems are split on it.Representative Lori …
The New Republic · September 9, 2026
Every House Member Who’s Still Not at Work After a Five-Week Vacation
The House of Representatives has returned from its five-week summer vacation, but for more than three dozen members that extended break apparently wasn’t enough.According to the House clerk, 46 lawmakers failed to make it back to Washington in time for the fi…
The New Republic · September 1, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗