Democratic
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Major-party general-election nominee.
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California District 23 election, 2026
Tessa Lynn Hodge vs. Jay Obernolte on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Jay Obernolte favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+13.9
98%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+19.92026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jay Obernolte
Incumbent representative for CA-23. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-23. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-23; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThis could be the biggest issue of 2027. Dems are split on it.Representative Lori …
The New Republic · September 9, 2026
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The New Republic · September 1, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗