Democratic
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Major-party general-election nominee.
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California District 23 election, 2026
Tessa Lynn Hodge vs. Jay Obernolte on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Jay Obernolte favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+13.1
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+17.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Jay Obernolte
Incumbent representative for CA-23. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-23. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-23; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Protecting Workers From AI Is Easier Said Than Done
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · Yesterday
AI bill’s lead House Republican pushes for vote after breaches
Rep. Jay Obernolte, a California Republican leading the charge on wide-ranging artificial intelligence legislation in the House, said Thursday he’s ramping up pressure for a committee vote after a series of cyber breaches involving rogue AI models. “We have …
Biztoc.com · August 6, 2026
A bipartisan House duo’s final pitch for pre-midterm AI action
A bipartisan House duo is racing against the clock to build consensus around a framework for regulating artificial intelligence — and prove Congress is up to the task of setting guardrails around the rapidly-evolving technology. Reps. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.…
Biztoc.com · July 27, 2026
130+ Groups Ask Congress to Reject AI Preemption Bill
On Thursday, Demand Progress and 130+ civil society groups sent a letter asking Republican and Democratic congressional leaders to reject legislation that would effectively kill state AI safeguards. The letter warns that the so-called Great American Artificia…
Common Dreams · June 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗