Democratic
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
California District 23 election, 2026
Tessa Lynn Hodge vs. Jay Obernolte on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jay Obernolte favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+14.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+19.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jay Obernolte
Incumbent representative for CA-23. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-23. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jay ObernolteREP · incumbent$1.9M raised
Spent $1.5MCash on hand $1.4MDebts $725k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Technology & Communications$122k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$37k
- Legal & Professional Services$37k
- Not Reported$24k
States
- CA$278k
- DC$83k
- VA$63k
- TX$28k
- OR$25k
Tessa Lynn HodgeDEM$127k raised
Spent $114kCash on hand $12kDebts $4k37% from donors under $200Self-funded $9k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$24k
- Unemployed$17k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
- Legal & Professional Services$750
- Retired$350
States
- CA$61k
- AZ$4k
- MD$1k
- NY$1k
- OR$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-23; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗