Democratic
Salud Carbajal
Incumbent representative for CA-24. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 24 election, 2026
Salud Carbajal vs. Bob Smith on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Salud Carbajal favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+31.1
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+25.72026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Bob Smith
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-24. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-24; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 24th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Hegseth Is Demanding US Households Pay $5,000 More Per Year to Fund the Pentagon, Economist Says
Critics lit into US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after he demanded on Tuesday that Congress pass President Donald Trump's plan for a $1.5 trillion military budget.While testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Hegseth once again made a pitch f…
Common Dreams · July 22, 2026
Elizabeth Warren Is Right About the Democrats’ Big Problem
Elizabeth Warren gave an excellent speech January 12 (text; video) urging Democrats not to “to sand down our edges to avoid offending anyone, especially the rich and powerful who might finance our candidates…. When Democrats water down their economic platform…
The New Republic · January 16, 2026
86 Democrats Condemn Socialism as Zohran Mamdani Meets With Trump
In a country where the cost of living skyrockets while wages remain low, where a few broken bones can leave you in financial ruin, and where the young feel they have no chance at any upward mobility, 86 House Democrats joined Republicans to pass a resolution …
The New Republic · November 21, 2025
US lawmakers urge Trump to roll back H-1B visa crackdown, warn of impact on India ties
-snip- Representative Jimmy Panetta, along with Congress members Ami Bera, Salud Carbajal, and Julie Johnson, wrote to the President expressing concern over the September 19 proclamation titled “Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers," as report…
Freerepublic.com · November 1, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗