Democratic
Salud Carbajal
Incumbent representative for CA-24. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 24 election, 2026
Salud Carbajal vs. Bob Smith on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Salud Carbajal favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+31.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+25.72026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Bob Smith
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-24. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-24; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 24th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Trump officials bailing out of admin to cash in on Venezuela oil bonanza: WaPo
Three days after he left his post as the Trump White House's top Latin America official, Michael Jensen was on a private jet with a crypto billionaire looking for oil deals in Venezuela – following others who've bailed out of government jobs to cash in overse…
Raw Story · October 8, 2026
'Warning shot' fired at White House over ex-official who waltzed into oil industry job
California Democrats are demanding answers from a former White House energy adviser who went to work for an oil company she had helped while in government.Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla and Rep. Salud Carbajal sent a letter Wednesday to Brittany Kelm seek…
Raw Story · October 7, 2026
Hegseth Is Demanding US Households Pay $5,000 More Per Year to Fund the Pentagon, Economist Says
Critics lit into US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after he demanded on Tuesday that Congress pass President Donald Trump's plan for a $1.5 trillion military budget.While testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Hegseth once again made a pitch f…
Common Dreams · July 22, 2026
Elizabeth Warren Is Right About the Democrats’ Big Problem
Elizabeth Warren gave an excellent speech January 12 (text; video) urging Democrats not to “to sand down our edges to avoid offending anyone, especially the rich and powerful who might finance our candidates…. When Democrats water down their economic platform…
The New Republic · January 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗