Democratic
Randy Villegas
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
California District 22 election, 2026
Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Randy Villegas favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.6
67%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+1.92026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging D+4.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+1.8.
Republican
David Valadao
Incumbent representative for CA-22. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Tulchin Research2026-06-21D+4.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-22; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 22nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Pre-Election ICE Surge in California Could Backfire on Republicans
Rep. David Valadao has said the raids target immigrants with criminal records. The United Farm Workers says this is false. The post Pre-Election ICE Surge in California Could Backfire on Republicans appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · Yesterday
Why the GOP’s Typical Attacks Aren’t Working on This Maine Candidate
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonMaine’s 2nd congressional district, covering 92 percent of the state, is the large…
The New Republic · October 6, 2026
Trump supercharged ICE. Now battleground candidates in both parties are recalibrating.
Randy Villegas, a Democratic candidate for Congress, addresses a town hall on data centers at the Episcopal Church of the Savior in Hanford, Calif., on Aug. 28. (Gary Kazanjian / For The Times) Since the 2024 election, Democratic congressional candidates hav…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 27, 2026
Valadao Has Survived California’s Toughest Races. Now He Faces a Progressive Challenger—and a Newly Redrawn District
Rep. David Valadao is a Republican representing a district where being a Republican has never been enough to guarantee a win. The Central Valley congressman has survived some of the closest races of his career by building a reputation around local issues and …
Daily Signal · September 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗