Democratic
Randy Villegas
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
California District 22 election, 2026
Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
David Valadao favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+5.9
80%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+1.92026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
David Valadao
Incumbent representative for CA-22. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Tulchin Research2026-06-21D+4.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-22; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 22nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Valadao Has Survived California’s Toughest Races. Now He Faces a Progressive Challenger—and a Newly Redrawn District
Rep. David Valadao is a Republican representing a district where being a Republican has never been enough to guarantee a win. The Central Valley congressman has survived some of the closest races of his career by building a reputation around local issues and …
Daily Signal · September 18, 2026
What Is This Bipartisan Data Center Bill Really About?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonWhat is this bipartisan data center bill really about?On Tuesday, Congress will co…
The New Republic · September 15, 2026
After years of defying the odds, California's David Valadao faces new test as Latinos turn on Trump
Republican congressman David Valadao has defied the odds before, winning elections in California districts with big Democratic registration advantages
Abcnews.com · September 5, 2026
How to flip a district
How to flip a district RE This Red to Blue climate hawk needs your help Randy Villegas is a people-powered climate hawk running against a fossil fueled Republican incumbent — David Valadao — in the swing-y California 22nd district. Valadao has been challenged…
Freerepublic.com · August 31, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗