Democratic
Randy Villegas
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
California District 22 election, 2026
Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Randy Villegas favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+5.3
84%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+1.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging D+7.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+3.4.
Republican
David Valadao
Incumbent representative for CA-22. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026David ValadaoREP · incumbent$6.3M raised
Spent $4.7MCash on hand $1.7M16% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$299k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$143k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$81k
- Legal & Professional Services$79k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$70k
States
- CA$871k
- FL$153k
- VA$141k
- NY$118k
- TX$91k
Randy VillegasDEM$5.9M raised
Spent $5.0MCash on hand $962k58% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.8M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$415k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$84k
- Legal & Professional Services$83k
- Technology & Communications$80k
States
- CA$2.1M
- NY$235k
- MA$179k
- TX$118k
- DC$81k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-22; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 22nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
So Who’s Running the Party Now: Progressives or Moderates?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Democrats have won a massive majority in the House, and amid the celebrations, di…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
In California’s Central Valley, ICE Might Swing a Red District Blue
As ICE rips through California during the election, progressive upstart Randy Villegas is trying to topple Republican Rep. David Valadao. The post In California’s Central Valley, ICE Might Swing a Red District Blue appeared first on The Intercept.
The Intercept · November 4, 2026
A GOP Congressman Backed Medicaid Work Requirements. His Voters Might Be Exempt.
A California congressman voted for the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which is projected to reduce Medicaid spending by $900 billion. Now Rep. David Valadao, whose House race will help decide control of Congress, is telling his constituents they may not have t…
Kffhealthnews.org · November 2, 2026
House's fate now hinges on 8 GOP incumbents — and they've all messed up
House Republicans can’t afford to make mistakes ahead of the upcoming midterm election — but that isn’t stopping them. As the majority party fights to keep its control of Congress, and protect President Donald Trump and his powerful allies from the investigat…
Raw Story · October 29, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗