California District 22 election, 2026

Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Randy Villegas favored

Lean D · predicted margin D+3.3

69%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+2.0

2026 national environment

D+5.5

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Randy Villegas

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

David Valadao

Incumbent representative for CA-22. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-22. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-22; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

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The New Republic · July 21, 2026

Newsom under fire as California gas tax hike sends pump prices even higher

California's gas tax will rise 2.2 cents per gallon Wednesday as GOP lawmakers led by Rep. David Valadao urge Gov. Gavin Newsom to suspend the hike.

Fox News · June 29, 2026

2 Big California Races Will Test Democrats' Redrawn Map

Republican-turned-independent Rep. Kevin Kiley and former Democratic state Sen. Richard Pan advanced to the November election Tuesday in a Northern California congressional district, while a progressive Democrat advanced to face Republican Rep. David Valadao …

Newser · June 12, 2026

'Voters Are Seeing Through the Bullshit': Progressives Take Down Corporate Dems Nationwide

Progressive candidates have swept to victory against establishment opponents in Democratic primary races across the US, including on Tuesday, as voters turn out in support of working-class champions who have spurned corporate money and vowed to pursue transfo…

Common Dreams · June 10, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-21 · CA-23