Democratic
Mark Takano
Incumbent representative for CA-39. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 39 election, 2026
Mark Takano vs. Steve Manos on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mark Takano favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+14.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+9.82026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Steve Manos
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-39. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mark TakanoDEM · incumbent$1.1M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand $231k11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$82k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$71k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$70k
- Unemployed$33k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$27k
States
- CA$361k
- NY$42k
- DC$31k
- HI$21k
- MO$19k
Steve ManosREP$12k raised
Spent $8kCash on hand $4k9% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$1k
States
- CA$7k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-39; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 39th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Vulnerable Republican scrambles away from his push to scrap veterans' loan rescue
A vulnerable Republican congressman is scrambling away from questions about his role in ending a program meant to keep veterans from losing their homes.Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), who is locked in a tight re-election race against Democrat Rebecca Cooke, le…
Raw Story · October 30, 2026
These Places Already Tried a 32-Hour Workweek. Here's What Happened
A proposal to make the 32-hour workweek the new federal standard is back before Congress, renewing debate over whether Americans could work fewer hours without taking a pay cut. Last week, independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Democratic Represent…
Biztoc.com · September 15, 2026
Could the US workweek drop to 32 hours? New Congress bill backed by Bernie Sanders and Mark Takano could change overtime rules
A new bill proposes gradually reducing the US overtime threshold to 32 hours as U.S. Rep. Mark Takano, D-California, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, introduced a bill in Congress this week that would reduce the workweek to 32 hours. Lawmakers argue work h…
The Times of India · September 12, 2026
New Bill Proposes 32-Hour Work Week—Here’s How It Would Work
A new bill in Congress would move the United States toward a 32-hour standard workweek, with supporters arguing that workers should benefit from productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence and automation. The Thirty-Two Hour Workweek Act, introduced …
Freerepublic.com · September 11, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗