Democratic
Derek Tran
Incumbent representative for CA-45. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 45 election, 2026
Derek Tran vs. Chuong Vo on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Derek Tran favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+10.0
94%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+4.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Chuong Vo
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-45. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-45; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 45th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Fairshake Backs 32 House Candidates As Crypto Election Spending Ramps Up
TL;DR Fairshake has named 32 U.S. House candidates it plans to support ahead of the November midterms. Six races are receiving $1 million in outside spending each, for an initial disclosed commitment of $6 million. The slate is bipartisan, with 19 Republicans…
newsBTC · October 6, 2026
Congressman Derek Tran Leads Bipartisan Push to Improve First Responders’ Mental Health and Safety
To strengthen first responders’ mental health and safety, frontline candidate and Democratic nominee Derek Tran, who represents the most competitive House seat in Southern California, introduced…
Derektranforcongress.com · September 16, 2026
13 Dems Help House GOP Pass Stock Trading Ban That Includes Trump Attack on Voters
The US House of Representatives on Wednesday held a series of key votes, including one in which over a dozen Democrats helped Republicans pass a purported congressional stock trading ban, even though the GOP tacked on a voter suppression provision demanded by…
Common Dreams · July 22, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗