Democratic
Michael Masuda
Major-party general-election nominee.
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California District 5 election, 2026
Michael Masuda vs. Tom McClintock on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Tom McClintock favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.22026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tom McClintock
Incumbent representative for CA-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
California Lawmaker Pushes Immunity for Stone Makers Amid Silicosis Epidemic
A federal proposal by California Republican Rep. Tom McClintock could block hundreds of silicosis lawsuits, as California workers suffer a deadly lung disease linked to engineered stone countertops.
KQED · June 4, 2026
Rep Tom McClintock Exposes Deadly Sanctuary Policies in Explosive Hearing
California remains the largest offender of DHS sanctuary jurisdictions violations House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Chairman Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) chaired a high-stakes hearing Thursday exposing the deadly c…
Freerepublic.com · May 16, 2026
Rep. Tom McClintock praises Trump's State of the Union
Republican Rep. Tom McClintock of California joined CBS News Wednesday with his reaction to President Trump's State of the Union.
CBS News · February 25, 2026
Republicans barely block bid to rein in Trump's Venezuela military action
The latest in a series of congressional efforts to rein in President Donald Trump’s military aggression against Venezuela failed Thursday as Republican lawmakers again defeated a war powers resolution by the tightest possible margin.House lawmakers voted 215-…
Raw Story · January 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗