VotePredictor
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California District 49 election, 2026

Mike Levin vs. Armen Kurdian on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Mike Levin favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+19.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+12.5
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±7.2 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Republican

Armen Kurdian

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-49. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Mike LevinDEM · incumbent$3.6M raised
Spent $2.5MCash on hand $1.4M7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MIKE LEVIN VICTORY FUND$143k
  2. DEMOCRACY SUMMER 2026$41k
  3. KEEP THE 49TH CLIMATE ACTION FUND$37k
  4. MUTCHNIK, NICOLE$11k
  5. MARTINEZ, REUBEN$10k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$1.2M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$283k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$129k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$128k
  5. Technology & Communications$42k

States

  1. CA$2.1M
  2. NY$130k
  3. MA$79k
  4. DC$48k
  5. VA$43k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Armen KurdianREP$189k raised
Spent $159kCash on hand $30kDebts $35k72% from donors under $200Self-funded $14k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. KURDIAN, ARMEN$11k
  2. BALDWIN, SHAWN$7k
  3. KASHIAN, EDWARD$7k
  4. SUDBERRY, THOMAS$7k
  5. HEYE, DONALD$5k

Industries

  1. Retired$64k
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$8k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
  4. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$4k
  5. Manufacturing & Industrial$4k

States

  1. CA$96k
  2. KS$11k
  3. ND$7k
  4. FL$4k
  5. NV$3k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-49; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in California's 49th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Mike Levin(D)D+4.3
2022Mike Levin(D)D+5.3
2020Mike Levin(D)D+6.3
2018Mike Levin(D)D+12.8
2016Darrell Issa(R)R+0.5
2000Susan A. Davis(D)D+3.5

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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-48 · CA-5