Democratic
Sara Jacobs
Incumbent representative for CA-51. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 51 election, 2026
Sara Jacobs vs. Ricardo Cabrera on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Sara Jacobs favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+35.1
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+18.82026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Ricardo Cabrera
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-51. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-51; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 51st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'We Cannot Wait for Disaster to Strike': Beyer Leads Bipartisan Push in House to Urgently Regulate AI
A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives on Wednesday released a joint letter urging congressional leaders to take immediate action to regulate the artificial intelligence industry.The group, led by Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), urged …
Common Dreams · September 16, 2026
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
2 House Democrats face off for leadership slot that isn’t even open yet
A fierce internal battle is developing among House Democrats for a job that might not even be open next Congress. Reps. Sara Jacobs of California and Lauren Underwood of Illinois are expected to seek the caucus vice chair post. The job is currently held by Re…
Biztoc.com · September 3, 2026
‘Not wise’: Republican breaks ranks to fight Pentagon press crackdown
A Republican lawmaker is joining forces with a Democrat to reverse the controversial Trump-era restrictions on journalists at the Pentagon.Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-CA) introduced bipartisan legislation Monday that would restore press acce…
Raw Story · August 31, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗