Democratic
Sara Jacobs
Incumbent representative for CA-51. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 51 election, 2026
Sara Jacobs vs. Ricardo Cabrera on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Sara Jacobs favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+24.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+18.82026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Ricardo Cabrera
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-51. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-51; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 51st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'I'm not buying it': Republicans scoff at apocalyptic AI warnings as blatant money grab
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Move over AI doomsday scenarios. Republicans seem to innately trust rapidly evolving artificial intelligence technology — even as they distrust the largest AI companies so much they’ve started spinning new conspiracies on Capitol Hill.Terri…
Raw Story · September 23, 2026
'We Cannot Wait for Disaster to Strike': Beyer Leads Bipartisan Push in House to Urgently Regulate AI
A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives on Wednesday released a joint letter urging congressional leaders to take immediate action to regulate the artificial intelligence industry.The group, led by Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), urged …
Common Dreams · September 16, 2026
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
2 House Democrats face off for leadership slot that isn’t even open yet
A fierce internal battle is developing among House Democrats for a job that might not even be open next Congress. Reps. Sara Jacobs of California and Lauren Underwood of Illinois are expected to seek the caucus vice chair post. The job is currently held by Re…
Biztoc.com · September 3, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗