Democratic
Sara Jacobs
Incumbent representative for CA-51. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 51 election, 2026
Sara Jacobs vs. Ricardo Cabrera on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Sara Jacobs favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+30.5
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+23.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Ricardo Cabrera
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-51. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-51; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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The New Republic · Yesterday
'As Toxic as AIPAC': Casar Urges Dems to Reject AI Industry Money and Protect Workers
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar this week urged fellow Democrats to reject campaign support from artificial intelligence industry lobbyists and unveiled a bill intended to help protect workers from AI-related mass unemployment. The Texas con…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
Sanders Says US Must End Support for UAE—’One of Trump’s Closest Allies’—as It Fuels Genocide in Sudan
As the world fears another massacre by the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, Sen. Bernie Sanders emphasized that the rebel group’s string of atrocities is being funded by a nation with deep financial ties to President Donald Trump—the United Arab Emirates—and ur…
Common Dreams · July 14, 2026
Amid Warnings of Atrocities in Sudan, Van Hollen Says Senate 'Missed Opportunity' to Cut Off Arms to UAE
After the US State Department warned earlier this week of imminent “atrocities” by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, Sen. Chris Van Hollen on Tuesday criticized the US Senate for missing a recent opportunity to cut off weapons to the United Arab Emirates, which h…
Common Dreams · June 24, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗