Democratic
Sara Jacobs
Incumbent representative for CA-51. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 51 election, 2026
Sara Jacobs vs. Ricardo Cabrera on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Sara Jacobs favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+26.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+18.82026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Ricardo Cabrera
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-51. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Sara JacobsDEM · incumbent$1.9M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $317kDebts $350k10% from donors under $200Self-funded $934k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- JACOBS, SARA$934k
- SARA JACOBS HOUSE VICTORY FUND$133k
- BLUE, ALLEN$11k
- LAHLOU, R'NELLE$11k
- ARNOLD, LAURA$7k
Industries
- Unemployed$151k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$40k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$30k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$21k
- Legal & Professional Services$18k
States
- CA$245k
- NY$30k
- TX$11k
- IL$7k
- KY$7k
Ricardo CabreraREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-51; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 51st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗