California District 52 election, 2026

Juan Vargas vs. Jeff Belle on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Juan Vargas favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+28.7

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+21.0

2026 national environment

D+5.5

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Juan Vargas

Incumbent representative for CA-52. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Republican

Jeff Belle

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-52. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-52; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

Rep. Juan Vargas denies receiving AIPAC money, contradicting the public record

Campaign finance records show the Democratic member of Congress representing San Diego’s South Bay has received over $200,000 from the pro-Israel group in recent election cycles. But he denies ever receiving a penny.

KPBS · April 22, 2026

Lone Democrat—Jared Golden—Helps GOP Tank Another Iran War Powers Resolution

With the decisive support of one Democrat—Rep. Jared Golden of Maine—the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday voted down a war powers resolution aimed at ending President Donald Trump's illegal assault on Iran, over six weeks after it be…

Common Dreams · April 16, 2026

'We Have Only Just Begun,' Hegseth Says as 4 House Dems Join GOP to Back Trump War on Iran

As US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Thursday that "the amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically," four Democrats in the House of Representatives voted with nearly all Republicans to reject a bipartisan war powers …

Common Dreams · March 6, 2026

Here’s Every Democrat Who Killed Resolution to Rein in Trump on Iran

The House voted 219-212 against a war powers resolution Thursday, refusing to place limits on President Trump’s powers as he continues his war on Iran alongside Israel. Four Democratic representatives voted with Republicans to kill the measure. The resolution…

The New Republic · March 5, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-51 · CA-6