Democratic
Juan Vargas
Incumbent representative for CA-52. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 52 election, 2026
Juan Vargas vs. Jeff Belle on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Juan Vargas favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+30.1
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+18.02026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Jeff Belle
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-52. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-52; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 52nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Fraud-convicted GOP candidate accused of exploiting five ex-wives: report
A San Diego Republican is running for Congress despite a decades-long record of fraud, false claims, and ex-wives who feel exploited.According to a Monday article by the San Diego Union-Tribune, Jeff Belle is the only Republican challenging longtime Rep. Juan…
Raw Story · September 7, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel
On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…
The New Republic · September 3, 2026
Rep. Juan Vargas denies receiving AIPAC money, contradicting the public record
Campaign finance records show the Democratic member of Congress representing San Diego’s South Bay has received over $200,000 from the pro-Israel group in recent election cycles. But he denies ever receiving a penny.
KPBS · April 22, 2026
Lone Democrat—Jared Golden—Helps GOP Tank Another Iran War Powers Resolution
With the decisive support of one Democrat—Rep. Jared Golden of Maine—the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday voted down a war powers resolution aimed at ending President Donald Trump's illegal assault on Iran, over six weeks after it be…
Common Dreams · April 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗