VotePredictor
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California District 6 election, 2026

Richard Pan vs. Republican nominee TBD on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Richard Pan favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+16.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+8.7
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±3.7 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Richard Pan

Candidate currently listed in the 2026 field.

Republican

Nominee not yet identified

The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Kevin Kiley · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-6. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Kevin KileyOTH · incumbent$3.7M raised
Spent $4.1MCash on hand $35kDebts $104k14% from donors under $200Self-funded $25
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GROW THE MAJORITY$618k
  2. KILEY VICTORY FUND$336k
  3. HAM, JAYNE$19k
  4. COOK, ROBERT$14k
  5. LOVETT, DAVID$14k

Industries

  1. Retired$833k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$141k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$43k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
  5. Not Reported$33k

States

  1. CA$1.6M
  2. NY$32k
  3. VA$24k
  4. TN$21k
  5. CO$17k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Richard PanDEM$2.5M raised
Spent $2.3MCash on hand $208kDebts $56k21% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. PAN VICTORY FUND$67k
  2. CALIFORNIA HOUSE MAJORITY FUND$60k
  3. 314 ACTION IMPACT SLATE$26k
  4. AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS (AFT), AFL-CIO COPE$8k
  5. DEM RISING 2026$8k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$523k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$169k
  3. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$70k
  4. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$57k
  5. Education & Academia$49k

States

  1. CA$943k
  2. MA$51k
  3. MD$26k
  4. NY$23k
  5. DC$22k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-52 · CA-7