VotePredictor
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California District 7 election, 2026

Doris Matsui vs. Mai Vang, both Democrats, in the top-two general election on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Democrats hold the seat either way
Both finalists are Democrats; the model forecasts a Democrat against a Republican, so it does not pick between them.
2024 presidential margin
D+13.2
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±7.2 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Mai Vang

Candidate currently listed in the 2026 field.

Other listed democratic candidates: Doris Matsui.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-7. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Doris MatsuiDEM · incumbent$7.8M raised
Spent $6.1MCash on hand $2.0MDebts $5.4M0% from donors under $200Self-funded $5.4M
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MATSUI, DORIS$1.4M
  2. MATSUI VICTORY FUND$56k
  3. SANT, MICHAEL$20k
  4. MORE DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS$15k
  5. CAFRITZ, JANE LIPTON$11k

Industries

  1. Retired$207k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$98k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$89k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$69k
  5. Technology & Communications$56k

States

  1. CA$516k
  2. DC$231k
  3. VA$83k
  4. NY$74k
  5. MD$53k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Mai VangDEM$1.8M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $389kDebts $24k21% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. LEADERS WE DESERVE$10k
  2. PACE OF CALIFORNIA SCHOOL EMPLOYEES ASSOCIATION$10k
  3. TSE, ROBERT$10k
  4. UNITE HERE TIP CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE$10k
  5. MARSH, GLENDA D.$10k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$471k
  2. Government$46k
  3. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$44k
  4. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$35k
  5. Education & Academia$31k

States

  1. CA$1.1M
  2. NY$43k
  3. NJ$19k
  4. WA$17k
  5. NC$16k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in California's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2016Ami Bera(D)D+2.3
2014Ami Bera(D)D+0.8
2012Ami Bera(D)D+3.4

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-6 · CA-8